Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | L24-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-21 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:87% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:46% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:75% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 6.9% | 97.1% |
| 7-2 | 23.5% | 53.9% |
| 6-3 | 33.5% | 5.5% |
| 5-4 | 24.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 9.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 20.6% (-0.6%) | 21.7% (+0.5%) | |
| 20.2% (-1.0%) | 22.1% (+0.9%) | |
| 23.0% (+1.8%) | 20.4% (-0.8%) | |
| 21.1% (-0.1%) | 21.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.4% (+0.2%) | 20.4% (-0.8%) | |
| 21.0% (-0.2%) | 21.9% (+0.7%) | |
| 31.7% (+10.5%) | 10.0% (-11.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Arizona State
Kansas
Cincinnati
Houston
ArizonaTCUCCG: 40.8% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 31.7% • Scenario: 51.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.1%
6.9%Any 1 loss
53.9%
23.5%62.2%
2.3%
60.8%
6.2%59.1%
1.5%
58.6%
0.9%
57.6%
2.0%
54.1%
3.0%
43.2%
7.6%Any 2 losses
5.6%
33.6%11.3%
2.1%10.8%
0.9%10.1%
0.4%8.6%
0.7%7.8%
0.5%7.4%
1.0%7.4%
0.3%7.0%
1.1%6.9%
1.4%6.4%
2.0%6.2%
0.5%5.2%
3.0%5.1%
0.2%5.0%
2.6%4.8%
7.1%4.2%
1.0%3.8%
2.5%3.5%
0.5%3.5%
0.7%3.5%
1.6%2.6%
3.5%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05