Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-05
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Texas TechTTU | 2-0 | 5-0 | 53.8% | |
| T1 |  Arizona StateASU | 2-0 | 4-1 | 47.8% | |
| T1 |  BYUBYU | 2-0 | 5-0 | 28.6% | |
| T1 |  CincinnatiCIN | 2-0 | 4-1 | 8.1% | |
| T5 |  Iowa StateISU | 2-1 | 5-1 | 10.7% | |
| T5 |  KansasKU | 2-1 | 4-2 | 10.2% | |
| T5 |  BaylorBAY | 2-1 | 4-2 | 5.9% | |
| T8 |  TCUTCU | 1-1 | 4-1 | 21.2% | |
| T8 |  UtahUTAH | 1-1 | 4-1 | 10.0% | |
| T8 |  HoustonHOU | 1-1 | 4-1 | 0.9% | |
| T8 |  ArizonaARIZ | 1-1 | 4-1 | 0.1% | |
| 12 |  Kansas StateKSU | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2.1% | |
| T13 |  UCFUCF | 0-2 | 3-2 | 0.5% | |
| T13 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-3 | 2-4 | <0.1% | |
| T13 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-2 | 1-4 | - | |
| T13 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-3 | 2-4 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 53.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 51.9% (-1.9%) | 55.5% (+1.7%) | |
| 51.5% (-2.3%) | 55.9% (+2.1%) | |
| 30.3% (-23.4%) | 64.1% (+10.3%) | |
| 54.8% (+1.0%) | 52.7% (-1.0%) | |
| 53.6% (-0.1%) | 54.4% (+0.7%) | |
| 53.2% (-0.5%) | 55.7% (+1.9%) | |
| 51.0% (-2.7%) | 56.6% (+2.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
ColoradoArizona StateTexas TechUCFOklahoma StateArizonaKansas StateCCG: 75.4% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas TechCCG: 64.1% • Scenario: 69.4%
Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 98.2% | 57.7% | 2.3% | 53.8% |
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 98.3% | 61.2% | 4.5% | 47.8% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 96.0% | 52.0% | 3.2% | 28.6% |
| TCUTCU | - | 97.1% | 53.9% | 5.5% | 21.2% |
| Iowa StateISU | - | 99.5% | 65.6% | 3.4% | 10.7% |
| KansasKU | - | 96.3% | 41.7% | 0.8% | 10.2% |
| UtahUTAH | - | 99.2% | 68.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 94.4% | 44.5% | 2.0% | 8.1% |
| BaylorBAY | - | 92.5% | 38.4% | 1.3% | 5.9% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | - | 70.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| HoustonHOU | - | 92.4% | 32.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| UCFUCF | - | - | 65.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | 100% | 62.1% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | - | - | 3.5% | <0.1% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | - | - | - |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-10-05
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU(2-0) | 7.7% | 26.1% | 34.5% | 22.7% | 7.7% | 1.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | 7.0 |
| Arizona StateASU(2-0) | 5.2% | 21.1% | 33.7% | 26.7% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.8 |
| BYUBYU(2-0) | 2.2% | 12.3% | 26.3% | 30.5% | 19.7% | 7.4% | 1.5% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.2 |
| TCUTCU(1-1) | - | 6.9% | 23.5% | 33.5% | 24.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | 5.9 |
| KansasKU(2-1) | - | 3.0% | 16.7% | 33.5% | 30.8% | 13.5% | 2.3% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.6 |
| Iowa StateISU(2-1) | - | 1.9% | 11.8% | 28.3% | 33.1% | 19.3% | 5.2% | 0.3% | - | - | 5.3 |
| CincinnatiCIN(2-0) | 0.2% | 2.4% | 11.6% | 27.1% | 32.8% | 20.1% | 5.5% | 0.5% | - | - | 5.3 |
| BaylorBAY(2-1) | - | 1.6% | 10.8% | 27.0% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 6.4% | 0.8% | - | - | 5.2 |
| UtahUTAH(1-1) | - | 1.5% | 9.3% | 22.7% | 30.2% | 23.5% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% | - | 4.9 |
| Kansas StateKSU(1-2) | - | - | 2.2% | 12.8% | 29.1% | 32.7% | 18.4% | 4.6% | 0.2% | - | 4.3 |
| HoustonHOU(1-1) | - | 0.2% | 2.1% | 11.2% | 27.6% | 34.2% | 19.4% | 4.9% | 0.4% | - | 4.3 |
| UCFUCF(0-2) | - | - | 0.6% | 6.1% | 21.4% | 34.4% | 26.7% | 9.3% | 1.3% | <0.1% | 3.9 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-3) | - | - | - | 1.8% | 11.3% | 28.1% | 33.4% | 19.8% | 5.1% | 0.4% | 3.2 |
| ArizonaARIZ(1-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.5% | 17.2% | 31.7% | 31.5% | 13.0% | - | 2.7 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 18.4% | 40.9% | 35.9% | 0.9 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-2) | - | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 10.3% | 36.6% | 51.4% | 0.6 |
Data from 2025-10-05