Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-12

Big TenConference Standings

T1IndianaIU3-06-076.0%
T1Ohio StOSU3-06-073.8%
3USCUSC3-15-14.4%
T4OregonORE2-15-132.2%
T4MichiganMICH2-14-211.1%
T4WashingtonWASH2-15-10.9%
T4NebraskaNEB2-15-10.8%
T4IowaIOWA2-14-20.6%
T4MinnesotaMINN2-14-2<0.1%
T4NorthwesternNU2-14-2<0.1%
T4UCLAUCLA2-12-4-
12IllinoisILL2-25-20.1%
13MarylandMD1-24-2<0.1%
T14Michigan StMSU0-33-3-
T14Penn StPSU0-33-3-
T14PurduePUR0-32-4-
T14RutgersRUTG0-33-3-
T14WisconsinWIS0-32-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

154.6%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
215.0%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
313.4%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
44.0%
IndianaIU
vs
MICHMichigan
53.2%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
62.9%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St
71.7%
IndianaIU
vs
USCUSC
81.5%
Ohio StOSU
vs
USCUSC
90.8%
MichiganMICH
vs
USCUSC
100.6%
Ohio StOSU
vs
WASHWashington
110.5%
NebraskaNEB
vs
OSUOhio St
120.3%
OregonORE
vs
USCUSC
130.3%
IndianaIU
vs
IOWAIowa
140.2%
IndianaIU
vs
WASHWashington
150.2%
IowaIOWA
vs
OSUOhio St

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 76.0%
Game
IndianaCCG OddsAway
IndianaCCG OddsHome
Penn StPSU@IowaIOWA
76.0%
(-0.1%)		76.3%
(+0.3%)
Ohio StOSU@WisconsinWIS
76.0%
(-0.0%)		76.4%
(+0.3%)
MarylandMD@UCLAUCLA
76.1%
(+0.1%)		75.9%
(-0.2%)
Michigan StMSU@IndianaIU
33.7%
(-42.4%)		77.1%
(+1.1%)
OregonORE@RutgersRUTG
75.2%
(-0.9%)		84.0%
(+8.0%)
USCUSC@Notre DameND
75.1%
(-0.9%)		76.1%
(+0.1%)
NebraskaNEB@MinnesotaMINN
76.0%
(-0.0%)		76.1%
(+0.1%)
WashingtonWASH@MichiganMICH
79.2%
(+3.2%)		75.2%
(-0.8%)
PurduePUR@NorthwesternNU
76.5%
(+0.4%)		75.9%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Indiana

IowaIowaWisconsinWisconsinMichigan StMichigan StateRutgersRutgers

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Indiana

IndianaIndiana

CCG: 77.1% • Scenario: 97.5%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-3Overall
IndianaIU100%78.5%11.4%0.1%76.0%
Ohio StOSU100%72.8%6.0%-73.8%
OregonORE-64.5%13.2%<0.1%32.2%
MichiganMICH-74.7%2.5%-11.1%
USCUSC-34.6%2.2%-4.4%
WashingtonWASH-72.9%2.5%-0.9%
NebraskaNEB-60.4%3.1%<0.1%0.8%
IowaIOWA-68.6%6.2%-0.6%
IllinoisILL--2.9%-0.1%
MinnesotaMINN-67.3%0.8%-<0.1%
NorthwesternNU-33.3%7.6%-<0.1%
MarylandMD--9.8%-<0.1%
Michigan StMSU-----
Penn StPSU---<0.1%-
PurduePUR-----
RutgersRUTG-----
UCLAUCLA--100%--
WisconsinWIS-----

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
Ohio StOSU(3-0)41.2%43.6%13.8%1.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%---8.2
IndianaIU(3-0)30.5%56.2%12.3%1.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%---8.2
OregonORE(2-1)-41.6%40.6%14.9%2.6%0.2%<0.1%0.0%--7.2
MichiganMICH(2-1)-13.3%46.0%31.0%8.6%1.1%<0.1%0.0%--6.6
USCUSC(3-1)-9.9%42.5%36.4%10.3%0.9%<0.1%---6.5
WashingtonWASH(2-1)-0.9%9.9%33.8%36.4%16.2%2.7%0.1%--5.3
NebraskaNEB(2-1)-0.8%10.4%31.4%35.5%17.7%3.8%0.3%--5.3
IowaIOWA(2-1)-0.4%5.1%21.1%38.1%28.3%6.6%0.4%--4.9
IllinoisILL(2-2)--3.9%19.2%35.0%28.8%11.4%1.7%--4.7
Penn StPSU(0-3)---13.5%39.8%34.1%10.9%1.6%0.1%0.0%4.5
MinnesotaMINN(2-1)-<0.1%2.0%13.8%33.0%33.8%15.1%2.4%--4.5
NorthwesternNU(2-1)-<0.1%0.4%3.8%18.3%38.9%32.3%6.3%--3.8
MarylandMD(1-2)--0.2%3.0%15.1%32.8%32.9%14.0%2.1%-3.5
UCLAUCLA(2-1)-0.0%0.0%<0.1%1.9%13.7%41.7%42.6%--2.7
RutgersRUTG(0-3)---<0.1%0.3%4.7%24.8%41.5%24.5%4.2%2.0
WisconsinWIS(0-3)---0.0%<0.1%1.5%12.1%34.4%37.5%14.4%1.5
Michigan StMSU(0-3)---0.0%0.0%0.2%2.6%15.5%42.2%39.5%0.8
PurduePUR(0-3)---0.0%0.0%<0.1%1.0%9.5%38.0%51.3%0.6

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com