Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W47-7 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | W38-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L15-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W37-0 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:21% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:82% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:22% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 68.6% |
| 7-2 | 5.1% | 6.2% |
| 6-3 | 21.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 38.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-0.4%) | 2.1% (+1.5%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.9%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.9%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Iowa
Michigan State
Rutgers
USC
NebraskaCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaCCG: 2.1% • Scenario: 21.3%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
68.6%
0.4%Any 1 loss
6.2%
5.1%
10.5%
0.1%10.4%
0.4%
9.2%
1.7%7.3%
<0.1%4.2%
1.3%
3.0%
1.6%1.7%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12