Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W20-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W68-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W59-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L27-30 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W38-27 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:83% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:10% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 60.4% |
| 7-2 | 10.4% | 3.1% |
| 6-3 | 31.4% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 35.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+1.4%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.6%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.4%) | 0.1% (-0.8%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
Michigan State
Rutgers
USC
Washington
NorthwesternCCG: 40.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NebraskaCCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 65.1%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
60.4%
0.8%Any 1 loss
3.1%
10.4%
7.3%
0.1%6.3%
0.2%
3.6%
0.4%
3.4%
0.7%
3.3%
7.4%1.5%
1.5%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12