Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W70-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W59-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L6-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-20 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | W38-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:20% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.9% | 72.9% |
| 7-2 | 9.9% | 2.5% |
| 6-3 | 33.8% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 36.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 16.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.8%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.9% (+3.0%) | 0.1% (-0.8%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Iowa
Wisconsin
UCLA
Rutgers
USCWashingtonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 3.9% • Scenario: 20.0%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
72.9%
0.9%Any 1 loss
2.6%
10.0%
11.5%
<0.1%7.6%
0.3%6.8%
0.6%
3.1%
3.6%
3.0%
0.4%
1.2%
5.0%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12