Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W63-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-10 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L13-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:80% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:90% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 13.3% | 74.7% |
| 7-2 | 46.0% | 2.5% |
| 6-3 | 31.0% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.1% (+0.0%) | 10.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.9% (-0.1%) | 13.1% (+2.1%) | |
| 11.5% (+0.5%) | 10.0% (-1.1%) | |
| 16.7% (+5.7%) | 10.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.6% (-0.5%) | 15.5% (+4.5%) | |
| 10.9% (-0.2%) | 11.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.3% (+0.3%) | 10.5% (-0.5%) | |
| 0.8% (-10.3%) | 13.6% (+2.6%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.3%) | 11.1% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Iowa
Wisconsin
UCLA
Michigan State
USCCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MichiganCCG: 13.6% • Scenario: 80.0%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
74.7%
13.3%Any 1 loss
2.5%
46.0%
6.5%
3.7%
6.1%
1.5%5.5%
1.5%
4.5%
3.4%
2.3%
0.4%
1.6%
35.5%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12