Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W33-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L32-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W31-13 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:10% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:93% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:23% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 9.9% | 34.6% |
| 7-2 | 42.5% | 2.2% |
| 6-3 | 36.4% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 10.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3% (-0.1%) | 4.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.1% (-0.3%) | 8.7% (+4.3%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.1%) | 4.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 13.0% (+8.6%) | 4.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 4.2% (-0.1%) | 4.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.4% (+0.0%) | 4.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.8% (-0.5%) | 4.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.4% (+0.0%) | 4.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wisconsin
UCLA
Michigan StateUSC
PurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WisconsinCCG: 8.7% • Scenario: 5.9%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
32.4%
1.0%Any 1 loss
24.5%
13.0%
34.8%
8.9%8.3%
<0.1%
5.6%
<0.1%
5.3%
0.3%
4.8%
0.5%
1.5%
3.1%Any 2 losses
2.2%
38.4%4.9%
4.7%4.8%
0.7%4.5%
3.3%3.2%
0.4%1.5%
29.3%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12