Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W59-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W69-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W30-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L20-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:90% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:96% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 41.6% | 64.5% |
| 7-2 | 40.6% | 13.2% |
| 6-3 | 14.9% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.2% (+0.0%) | 32.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 30.7% (-1.5%) | 56.7% (+24.5%) | |
| 32.2% (-0.0%) | 32.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 53.1% (+20.9%) | 31.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 34.9% (+2.7%) | 7.9% (-24.3%) | |
| 32.9% (+0.7%) | 32.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.2% (+0.0%) | 32.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 33.7% (+1.4%) | 31.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.7%) | 32.4% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan State
PurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonCCG: 34.9% • Scenario: 90.0%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
64.5%
41.6%Any 1 loss
13.2%
40.6%
17.0%
4.7%
16.4%
1.8%15.2%
12.0%
14.1%
7.5%13.7%
1.9%
8.8%
12.6%1.4%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12