Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-34 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L36-42 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:63% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:33% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 4.3% | 49.7% |
| 6-3 | 20.3% | 0.8% |
| 5-4 | 35.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 10.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8% (+2.5%) | 0.1% (-2.2%) | |
| 2.3% (-0.0%) | 2.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.9% (+0.6%) | 2.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.1%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.0%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.9%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.3%) | 2.6% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Baylor
West Virginia
Houston
Colorado
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Iowa StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorCCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 47.2%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
49.7%
4.3%Any 1 loss
1.2%
11.7%
1.9%
2.9%1.4%
1.6%
1.3%
2.5%
0.7%
4.7%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19