Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | L24-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-21 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L28-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W42-36 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:45% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 16.0% | 70.9% |
| 6-3 | 38.5% | 6.0% |
| 5-4 | 31.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 11.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.8% (+0.1%) | 13.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.5% (+1.9%) | 1.8% (-11.8%) | |
| 16.6% (+2.9%) | 12.8% (-0.9%) | |
| 17.0% (+3.3%) | 12.7% (-0.9%) | |
| 14.0% (+0.3%) | 13.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 17.7% (+4.0%) | 13.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.9% (-0.7%) | 14.5% (+0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Arizona State
Colorado
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Iowa StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 15.5% • Scenario: 86.4%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
70.9%
16.0%Any 1 loss
6.0%
38.5%10.0%
2.5%
10.0%
5.5%7.7%
6.7%
4.2%
19.2%4.2%
4.7%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19