Big XII

Big XII Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19

Big XIIConference Standings

T1BYUBYU4-07-044.6%
T1CincinnatiCIN4-06-116.2%
T3Texas TechTTU3-16-168.0%
T3Arizona StASU3-15-229.5%
T3HoustonHOU3-16-11.7%
T6UtahUTAH2-25-214.9%
T6TCUTCU2-25-213.6%
T6Iowa StISU2-25-23.9%
T6Kansas StKSU2-23-43.7%
T6BaylorBAY2-24-32.3%
T6KansasKU2-24-31.4%
T12ColoradoCOLO1-33-4<0.1%
T12UCFUCF1-34-3<0.1%
T12ArizonaARIZ1-34-3<0.1%
T15Oklahoma StOKST0-41-6-
T15West VirginiaWVU0-42-5-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big XII CCG Matchups

123.8%
BYUBYU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
215.7%
Arizona StASU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
38.7%
CincinnatiCIN
vs
TTUTexas Tech
47.6%
Arizona StASU
vs
BYUBYU
57.5%
Texas TechTTU
vs
UTAHUtah
66.8%
TCUTCU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
74.2%
BYUBYU
vs
UTAHUtah
83.5%
BYUBYU
vs
CINCincinnati
92.3%
BYUBYU
vs
TCUTCU
101.9%
Iowa StISU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
111.7%
Arizona StASU
vs
TCUTCU
121.7%
Arizona StASU
vs
CINCincinnati
131.5%
Arizona StASU
vs
UTAHUtah
141.1%
Kansas StKSU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
151.0%
TCUTCU
vs
UTAHUtah

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIICCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big XII CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 68.0%
Game
Texas TechCCG OddsAway
Texas TechCCG OddsHome
BaylorBAY@CincinnatiCIN
68.1%
(+0.1%)		67.9%
(-0.1%)
TCUTCU@West VirginiaWVU
67.4%
(-0.5%)		71.4%
(+3.4%)
HoustonHOU@Arizona StASU
72.5%
(+4.5%)		66.6%
(-1.4%)
ColoradoCOLO@UtahUTAH
69.6%
(+1.6%)		67.5%
(-0.5%)
Kansas StKSU@KansasKU
66.9%
(-1.1%)		69.2%
(+1.2%)
Oklahoma StOKST@Texas TechTTU
35.9%
(-32.1%)		68.3%
(+0.4%)
BYUBYU@Iowa StISU
67.4%
(-0.6%)		68.6%
(+0.7%)

Best Winner Combination for Texas Tech

BaylorBaylorWest VirginiaWest VirginiaColoradoColoradoKansasKansasOklahoma StOklahoma StateBYUBYU

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Texas Tech

HoustonHoustonTexas TechTexas Tech

CCG: 72.9% • Scenario: 23.2%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIICCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-3Overall
Texas TechTTU-99.9%68.4%2.6%68.0%
BYUBYU100%97.4%61.1%4.2%44.6%
Arizona StASU-98.9%56.7%2.3%29.5%
CincinnatiCIN100%96.4%40.0%0.9%16.2%
UtahUTAH--60.0%9.8%14.9%
TCUTCU--70.9%6.0%13.6%
Iowa StISU--77.1%2.4%3.9%
Kansas StKSU--79.4%2.1%3.7%
BaylorBAY--49.7%0.8%2.3%
HoustonHOU-92.0%28.6%0.4%1.7%
KansasKU--29.4%0.4%1.4%
ColoradoCOLO---3.4%<0.1%
UCFUCF---4.5%<0.1%
ArizonaARIZ---4.2%<0.1%
Oklahoma StOKST-----
West VirginiaWVU-----

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIIFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
Texas TechTTU(3-1)-37.4%44.2%16.1%2.3%0.1%0.0%---7.2
BYUBYU(4-0)3.3%18.9%35.5%29.6%11.2%1.5%----6.7
Arizona StASU(3-1)-10.1%33.0%36.6%16.8%3.3%0.2%---6.3
CincinnatiCIN(4-0)0.5%6.1%23.7%38.1%25.8%5.8%----6.0
UtahUTAH(2-2)--18.8%37.6%30.1%11.3%2.1%0.1%--5.6
TCUTCU(2-2)--16.0%38.5%31.5%11.9%1.9%0.1%--5.5
Kansas StKSU(2-2)--4.1%21.7%39.0%27.9%7.1%0.3%--4.9
KansasKU(2-2)--4.3%21.3%37.9%28.4%7.9%0.3%--4.9
Iowa StISU(2-2)--4.3%21.5%37.7%27.9%8.1%0.4%--4.8
HoustonHOU(3-1)-0.4%4.4%18.8%37.5%31.8%7.1%---4.8
BaylorBAY(2-2)--4.3%20.3%35.1%28.1%10.8%1.5%--4.7
ColoradoCOLO(1-3)---2.2%15.9%36.9%32.4%11.3%1.3%-3.6
UCFUCF(1-3)---0.8%9.2%32.7%41.9%14.7%0.7%-3.4
ArizonaARIZ(1-3)---0.3%3.1%14.5%32.0%35.2%15.0%-2.6
West VirginiaWVU(0-4)----<0.1%0.2%2.7%15.6%40.7%40.8%0.8
Oklahoma StOKST(0-4)----0.0%0.0%<0.1%1.6%17.9%80.4%0.2

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com