CincinnatiBearcats

6-1 T1st (4-0) in B12

Data from 2025-10-19 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

16.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsNebraskaNEB(N)	L17-20
2	9/06	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W34-20
3	9/13	vsNorthwestern StateNWST	W70-0
5	9/27	@KansasKU	W37-34
6	10/04	vsIowa StateISU	W38-30
7	10/11	vsUCFUCF	W20-11
8	10/18	@Oklahoma StateOKST	W49-17
9	10/25	vsBaylorBAY	Win prob:53%
10	11/01	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:17%
12	11/15	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:69%
13	11/22	vsBYUBYU	Win prob:38%
14	11/29	@TCUTCU	Win prob:22%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.5%	100.0%
8-1	6.1%	96.4%
7-2	23.7%	40.0%
6-3	38.1%	0.9%
5-4	25.8%	0%
4-5	5.8%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

57.2%

22.9%

11.1%

5.2%

3.7%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BaylorBAY@CincinnatiCIN	6.9% (-9.3%)	24.6% (+8.4%)
TCUTCU@West VirginiaWVU	16.1% (-0.2%)	17.3% (+1.1%)
HoustonHOU@Arizona StateASU	18.9% (+2.7%)	15.4% (-0.8%)
ColoradoCOLO@UtahUTAH	17.3% (+1.1%)	15.9% (-0.3%)
Kansas StateKSU@KansasKU	15.8% (-0.5%)	16.7% (+0.5%)
Oklahoma StateOKST@Texas TechTTU	23.0% (+6.8%)	16.2% (-0.1%)
BYUBYU@Iowa StateISU	14.9% (-1.3%)	17.7% (+1.5%)

Best Winner Combination for

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Arizona State

Colorado

Kansas

Oklahoma State

BYU

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Cincinnati

CCG: 24.6% • Scenario: 52.8%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.5%

Any 1 loss

96.4%

6.1%

100.0%

0.2%

98.2%

0.5%

97.0%

2.7%

96.7%

1.8%

92.1%

0.9%

Any 2 losses

40.0%

23.7%

73.2%

0.2%

60.6%

0.8%

59.6%

1.7%

51.5%

1.2%

49.7%

0.8%

44.8%

2.3%

44.7%

0.4%

40.9%

8.9%

28.4%

3.1%

25.0%

4.2%

Any 3 losses

1.3%

23.8%

4.9%

0.3%

3.1%

0.8%

2.8%

1.0%

1.7%

3.9%

1.1%

1.4%

1.1%

1.8%

1.1%

2.7%

0.9%

3.8%

0.9%

8.1%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com