Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W43-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W63-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-6 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W48-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W42-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L21-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:78% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:64% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 18.8% | 60.0% |
| 6-3 | 37.6% | 9.8% |
| 5-4 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 11.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.2% (+1.2%) | 13.8% (-1.1%) | |
| 14.7% (-0.2%) | 16.4% (+1.5%) | |
| 16.2% (+1.3%) | 14.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 2.4% (-12.5%) | 18.5% (+3.6%) | |
| 14.9% (-0.1%) | 15.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.7% (+6.7%) | 14.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.7% (-2.2%) | 17.4% (+2.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Baylor
West Virginia
HoustonUtah
Oklahoma State
BYUCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 18.5% • Scenario: 77.8%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
60.0%
18.8%Any 1 loss
9.8%
37.6%
10.9%
10.6%
10.2%
5.3%
10.0%
8.7%9.8%
9.0%
5.1%
3.9%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19