Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W31-7 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W46-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L31-42 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L34-37 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W27-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L17-42 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:36% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 4.3% | 29.4% |
| 6-3 | 21.3% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 37.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (+0.2%) | 1.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-1.3%) | 2.8% (+1.4%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.8%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.4%) | 1.9% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
West Virginia
Houston
ColoradoKansas
Oklahoma State
BYUCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
KansasCCG: 2.8% • Scenario: 47.3%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
29.4%
4.3%Any 1 loss
0.9%
7.7%2.2%
0.2%
0.9%
5.0%
0.7%
2.5%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19