Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W27-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W36-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L11-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W39-17 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W31-28 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:23% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:26% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 92.0% |
| 7-2 | 4.4% | 28.6% |
| 6-3 | 18.8% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 37.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9% (+0.3%) | 1.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.8% (+4.1%) | 0.4% (-1.3%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.4%) | 1.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.2%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.3%) | 2.0% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Baylor
TCUHouston
Colorado
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Iowa StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 5.8% • Scenario: 23.5%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
28.6%
4.4%
37.2%
0.8%
36.6%
0.1%36.4%
1.0%22.9%
1.2%
21.3%
1.3%Any 2 losses
0.8%
6.4%1.9%
0.3%1.2%
0.4%0.8%
2.2%0.7%
2.8%0.6%
0.4%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19