UCF

UCFKnights

4-3 T12th (1-3) in B12

Data from 2025-10-19 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

UCFSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/28
vsJacksonville StJXST
W17-10
29/06
vsNorth Carolina A&TNCAT
W68-7
49/20
vsNorth CarolinaUNC
W34-9
59/27
@Kansas StKSU
L20-34
610/04
vsKansasKU
L20-27
710/11
@CincinnatiCIN
L11-20
810/18
vsWest VirginiaWVU
W45-13
1011/01
@BaylorBAY
Win prob:37%
1111/07
vsHoustonHOU
Win prob:68%
1211/15
@Texas TechTTU
Win prob:13%
1311/22
vsOklahoma StOKST
Win prob:95%
1411/29
@BYUBYU
Win prob:25%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-3
0.8%
4.5%
5-4
9.2%
0%
4-5
32.7%
0%
3-6
41.9%
0%
2-7
14.7%
0%
1-8
0.7%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely UCF CCG Opponents

if UCF makes the CCG

BYUBYU
33.3%
Texas TechTexas Tech
33.3%
CincinnatiCincinnati
33.3%
Arizona StateArizona St
0.0%
UtahUtah
0.0%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFThis Week's Impact

Game
UCFCCG OddsAway
UCFCCG OddsHome
BaylorBAY@CincinnatiCIN
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(-0.0%)
TCUTCU@West VirginiaWVU
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
HoustonHOU@Arizona StASU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(-0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@UtahUTAH
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
Kansas StKSU@KansasKU
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
Oklahoma StOKST@Texas TechTTU
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Iowa StISU
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for UCF

BaylorBaylorWest VirginiaWest VirginiaHoustonHoustonColoradoColoradoKansas StKansas StateTexas TechTexas TechIowa StIowa State

CCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for UCF

HoustonHoustonTexas TechTexas Tech

CCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 23.2%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UCF CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
4.5%
0.8%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com