SEC Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19
Conference Standings
| T1 |  AlabamaALA | 4-0 | 6-1 | 85.7% | |
| T1 |  Texas A&MTA&M | 4-0 | 7-0 | 14.1% | |
| 3 |  GeorgiaUGA | 4-1 | 6-1 | 57.7% | |
| 4 |  Ole MissMISS | 3-1 | 6-1 | 17.0% | |
| T5 |  TexasTEX | 2-1 | 5-2 | 16.6% | |
| T5 |  MissouriMIZ | 2-1 | 6-1 | 4.5% | |
| T5 |  VanderbiltVAN | 2-1 | 6-1 | 1.8% | |
| T5 |  OklahomaOU | 2-1 | 6-1 | 1.4% | |
| T9 |  TennesseeTENN | 2-2 | 5-2 | 0.7% | |
| T9 |  LSULSU | 2-2 | 5-2 | 0.5% | |
| T9 |  FloridaFLA | 2-2 | 3-4 | <0.1% | |
| 12 |  South CarolinaSC | 1-4 | 3-4 | - | |
| T13 |  ArkansasARK | 0-3 | 2-5 | - | |
| T13 |  AuburnAUB | 0-4 | 3-4 | - | |
| T13 |  KentuckyUK | 0-4 | 2-4 | - | |
| T13 |  Mississippi StateMSST | 0-3 | 4-3 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 85.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 86.0% (+0.3%) | 84.6% (-1.1%) | |
| 85.7% (-0.0%) | 86.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 83.1% (-2.6%) | 88.2% (+2.5%) | |
| 86.0% (+0.2%) | 85.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 84.6% (-1.1%) | 88.9% (+3.1%) | |
| 91.5% (+5.8%) | 62.7% (-23.1%) | |
| 85.0% (-0.8%) | 86.5% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
KentuckyMississippi StateLSUAuburnOklahomaAlabamaMissouriCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 91.5% • Scenario: 80.0%
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlabamaALA | 100% | 94.6% | 31.8% | <0.1% | 85.7% |
| GeorgiaUGA | - | 96.3% | 9.9% | - | 57.7% |
| Ole MissMISS | - | 30.5% | 1.5% | - | 17.0% |
| TexasTEX | - | 86.7% | 1.6% | - | 16.6% |
| Texas A&MTA&M | 100% | 42.6% | 1.8% | - | 14.1% |
| MissouriMIZ | - | 52.2% | 1.4% | - | 4.5% |
| VanderbiltVAN | - | 69.3% | 6.2% | - | 1.8% |
| OklahomaOU | - | 93.5% | 23.5% | - | 1.4% |
| TennesseeTENN | - | - | 2.5% | - | 0.7% |
| LSULSU | - | - | 15.6% | - | 0.5% |
| FloridaFLA | - | - | 37.5% | - | <0.1% |
| ArkansasARK | - | - | - | - | - |
| AuburnAUB | - | - | - | - | - |
| KentuckyUK | - | - | - | - | - |
| Mississippi StateMSST | - | - | - | - | - |
| South CarolinaSC | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-10-19
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlabamaALA(4-0) | 42.9% | 40.5% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | 7.2 |
| GeorgiaUGA(4-1) | - | 56.0% | 38.4% | 5.4% | 0.2% | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| Ole MissMISS(3-1) | - | 53.9% | 36.9% | 8.4% | 0.7% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.4 |
| Texas A&MTA&M(4-0) | 3.7% | 22.5% | 40.9% | 27.5% | 5.3% | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| TexasTEX(2-1) | - | 18.2% | 47.8% | 27.3% | 6.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.8 |
| MissouriMIZ(2-1) | - | 7.8% | 27.4% | 36.4% | 22.1% | 5.8% | 0.5% | - | - | 5.1 |
| TennesseeTENN(2-2) | - | - | 26.2% | 42.3% | 24.7% | 6.2% | 0.6% | - | - | 4.9 |
| VanderbiltVAN(2-1) | - | 1.5% | 13.1% | 34.8% | 35.5% | 13.6% | 1.6% | - | - | 4.5 |
| LSULSU(2-2) | - | - | 3.2% | 22.7% | 41.8% | 27.3% | 5.1% | - | - | 3.9 |
| OklahomaOU(2-1) | - | 0.4% | 4.6% | 19.0% | 36.0% | 30.6% | 9.4% | - | - | 3.8 |
| FloridaFLA(2-2) | - | - | 0.2% | 3.8% | 25.4% | 48.7% | 21.9% | - | - | 3.1 |
| AuburnAUB(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 2.9% | 20.8% | 42.0% | 29.1% | 5.2% | 1.9 |
| ArkansasARK(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.2% | 4.0% | 20.0% | 39.2% | 29.9% | 6.7% | 1.9 |
| South CarolinaSC(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.5% | 8.4% | 37.7% | 53.3% | - | 1.6 |
| KentuckyUK(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.3% | 3.8% | 20.0% | 43.7% | 32.2% | 1.0 |
| Mississippi StateMSST(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.2% | 10.0% | 37.9% | 50.9% | 0.6 |
Data from 2025-10-19