Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
85.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W27-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-20 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:80% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 42.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 40.5% | 94.6% |
| 6-2 | 14.2% | 31.8% |
| 5-3 | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 86.0% (+0.3%) | 84.6% (-1.1%) | |
| 85.7% (-0.0%) | 86.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 83.1% (-2.6%) | 88.2% (+2.5%) | |
| 86.0% (+0.2%) | 85.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 84.6% (-1.1%) | 88.9% (+3.1%) | |
| 91.5% (+5.8%) | 62.7% (-23.1%) | |
| 85.0% (-0.8%) | 86.5% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Mississippi State
LSU
Auburn
OklahomaAlabama
MissouriCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 91.5% • Scenario: 80.0%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
38.6%Any 1 loss
95.1%
40.7%
100.0%
4.3%96.9%
7.7%94.8%
8.7%
94.1%
9.6%93.0%
10.4%Any 2 losses
47.1%
16.9%97.0%
0.9%96.2%
1.0%94.0%
1.1%92.4%
1.1%36.4%
2.3%35.2%
2.6%34.8%
2.2%28.6%
2.0%27.5%
1.9%26.4%
1.8%Any 3 losses
30.4%
1.4%35.5%
0.3%33.1%
0.2%30.6%
0.3%29.1%
0.2%27.6%
0.2%25.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19