Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-26 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W72-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L41-44 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W41-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L20-37 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:81% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:69% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:98% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 26.2% | 2.5% |
| 5-3 | 42.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 24.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.7%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.2%) | 0.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.3%) | 1.4% (+0.8%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Texas A&M
Auburn
Oklahoma
South Carolina
MissouriCCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TennesseeOklahomaCCG: 1.8% • Scenario: 21.7%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
2.5%
25.6%
2.1%
0.6%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19