Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-13 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W24-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W44-0 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L6-23 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W26-7 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:27% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:31% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:17% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:51% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.4% | 93.5% |
| 6-2 | 4.6% | 23.5% |
| 5-3 | 19.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 36.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 9.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.3%) | 1.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (-1.2%) | 4.8% (+3.3%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.2%) | 2.1% (+0.7%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Texas A&M
ArkansasOklahoma
South Carolina
VanderbiltCCG: 15.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 26.7%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.5%
0.4%Any 1 loss
23.5%
4.6%
39.3%
0.9%
35.0%
0.4%
33.2%
0.4%
17.0%
2.0%
15.4%
1.0%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19