American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-02

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1UT San AntonioUTSA0-01-057.9%
T1TulaneTULN0-01-039.6%
T1MemphisMEM0-01-038.5%
T1North TexasUNT0-01-014.9%
T1South FloridaUSF0-01-011.1%
T1ArmyARMY0-01-011.0%
T1FL AtlanticFAU0-00-19.2%
T1East CarolinaECU0-01-08.2%
T1NavyNAVY0-01-03.9%
T1UABUAB0-01-03.7%
T1RiceRICE0-00-11.1%
T1TulsaTLSA0-01-00.5%
T1CharlotteCLT0-00-10.1%
T1TempleTEM0-00-1<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

118.1%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
216.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
38.3%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
45.4%
North TexasUNT
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
54.0%
South FloridaUSF
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
63.9%
ArmyARMY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
73.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
83.5%
FL AtlanticFAU
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
93.0%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
102.8%
East CarolinaECU
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
112.4%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
122.3%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
132.2%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
142.2%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
151.9%
FL AtlanticFAU
vs
TULNTulane

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 57.9%
Game
UT San AntonioCCG OddsAway
UT San AntonioCCG OddsHome
CharlotteCLT@North CarolinaUNC
58.1%
(+0.2%)		57.9%
(-0.0%)
TulsaTLSA@Arkansas StARST
57.8%
(-0.1%)		58.0%
(+0.0%)
Texas SouthernTXSO@RiceRICE
57.6%
(-0.3%)		58.0%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@ULMULM
57.7%
(-0.2%)		58.5%
(+0.5%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
57.7%
(-0.2%)		58.1%
(+0.1%)
South FloridaUSF@AlabamaALA
58.9%
(+1.0%)		57.9%
(-0.0%)
ArmyARMY@FL AtlanticFAU
57.8%
(-0.2%)		58.1%
(+0.1%)
TroyTROY@MemphisMEM
58.0%
(+0.0%)		57.9%
(-0.0%)
Stephen F. AustinSFA@North TexasUNT
57.4%
(-0.6%)		58.0%
(+0.1%)
Kansas StKSU@TulaneTULN
58.0%
(+0.1%)		57.6%
(-0.3%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@Texas StTXST
57.8%
(-0.1%)		58.2%
(+0.3%)
TempleTEM@NavyNAVY
60.4%
(+2.4%)		57.5%
(-0.4%)

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-3Overall
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-96.7%-48.6%-1.6%57.9%
TulaneTULN--100%-90.1%-27.7%-0.3%39.6%
MemphisMEM--100%-99.3%-58.4%-3.4%38.5%
North TexasUNT--100%-99.6%-60.1%-2.9%14.9%
South FloridaUSF--100%-90.9%-29.5%-0.6%11.1%
ArmyARMY100%89.2%-38.9%-8.5%-0.1%-11.0%
FL AtlanticFAU--100%-88.8%-25.9%-0.3%9.2%
East CarolinaECU--100%-87.9%-22.5%-0.2%8.2%
NavyNAVY100%90.1%-41.8%-9.2%-0.1%-3.9%
UABUAB--100%-93.2%-32.6%-0.6%3.7%
RiceRICE--100%-99.2%-56.8%-4.0%1.1%
TulsaTLSA--100%-95.0%-42.4%-1.3%0.5%
CharlotteCLT----90.9%-51.0%-3.4%0.1%
TempleTEM----100%-52.6%-3.8%<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-90-8Avg Wins
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%12.6%0.0%30.8%0.0%31.6%0.0%17.7%0.0%6.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%6.2
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%8.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%32.8%0.0%22.7%0.0%9.1%0.0%2.2%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%5.9
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%3.3%0.0%16.2%0.0%30.9%0.0%29.1%0.0%15.1%0.0%4.5%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%5.5
ArmyARMY(0-0)0.5%3.9%0.0%12.9%0.0%24.2%0.0%27.3%0.0%19.6%0.0%8.9%0.0%2.5%0.0%0.4%0.0%<0.1%0.0%5.2
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%0.7%0.0%5.4%0.0%17.8%0.0%29.2%0.0%26.8%0.0%14.6%0.0%4.6%0.0%0.8%-<0.1%4.6
FL AtlanticFAU(0-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%4.9%0.0%16.5%0.0%28.7%0.0%27.9%0.0%15.8%0.0%4.9%0.0%0.8%-<0.1%4.5
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%4.3%0.0%15.5%0.0%28.5%0.0%28.8%0.0%16.3%0.0%5.1%0.0%0.8%-<0.1%4.5
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%0.6%0.0%4.6%0.0%15.7%0.0%27.7%0.0%28.3%0.0%16.6%0.0%5.6%0.0%0.9%-<0.1%4.4
NavyNAVY(0-0)<0.1%0.8%0.0%4.4%0.0%13.5%0.0%24.6%0.0%28.1%0.0%19.3%0.0%7.6%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.1%0.0%4.3
UABUAB(0-0)-0.0%0.1%0.0%1.3%0.0%7.0%0.0%19.1%0.0%29.6%0.0%25.9%0.0%13.2%0.0%3.4%-0.4%3.7
RiceRICE(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.3%0.0%6.4%0.0%18.3%0.0%30.3%0.0%28.1%0.0%13.2%-2.2%2.7
TulsaTLSA(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%4.3%0.0%13.7%0.0%27.0%0.0%30.6%0.0%19.0%-4.5%2.4
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.2%0.0%5.7%0.0%17.5%0.0%31.5%0.0%30.9%-13.1%1.8
TempleTEM(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%1.9%0.0%9.3%0.0%26.3%0.0%39.5%-22.8%1.3

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com