Navy

NavyMidshipmen

1-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

NavySchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/31
vsBucknellBUCK
W49-21
29/07
vsTempleTEM
Win prob:85%
49/21
vsMemphisMEM
Win prob:30%
59/28
@UABUAB
Win prob:43%
610/05
@Air ForceAF
Win prob:18%
810/19
vsCharlotteCLT
Win prob:79%
910/26
vsNotre DameND(N)
Win prob:5%
1011/02
@RiceRICE
Win prob:50%
1111/09
@South FloridaUSF
Win prob:32%
1211/16
vsTulaneTULN
Win prob:31%
1411/29
@East CarolinaECU
Win prob:37%
12/14
vsArmyARMY(N)
Win prob:42%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
100.0%
8-1
0.8%
90.1%
7-2
4.4%
41.8%
6-3
13.5%
9.2%
5-4
24.6%
0.1%
4-5
28.1%
0%
3-6
19.3%
0%
2-7
7.6%
0%
1-8
1.5%
0%
0-9
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Navy CCG Opponents

if Navy makes the CCG

UTSAUT San Antonio
43.1%
MemphisMemphis
22.5%
TulaneTulane
21.3%
North TexasNorth Texas
6.6%
South FloridaSouth Florida
6.6%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyThis Week's Impact

Game
NavyCCG OddsAway
NavyCCG OddsHome
CharlotteCLT@North CarolinaUNC
4.5%
(+0.5%)		3.9%
(-0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@Arkansas StARST
4.0%
(+0.0%)		3.9%
(-0.0%)
Texas SouthernTXSO@RiceRICE
3.9%
(-0.1%)		3.9%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@ULMULM
3.9%
(-0.1%)		4.1%
(+0.1%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
3.9%
(-0.1%)		4.0%
(+0.1%)
South FloridaUSF@AlabamaALA
4.5%
(+0.5%)		3.9%
(-0.0%)
ArmyARMY@FL AtlanticFAU
3.8%
(-0.1%)		4.0%
(+0.1%)
TroyTROY@MemphisMEM
3.9%
(+0.0%)		3.9%
(+0.0%)
Stephen F. AustinSFA@North TexasUNT
4.0%
(+0.1%)		3.9%
(-0.0%)
Kansas StKSU@TulaneTULN
4.0%
(+0.0%)		3.9%
(-0.1%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@Texas StTXST
4.0%
(+0.0%)		3.8%
(-0.1%)
TempleTEM@NavyNAVY
0.9%
(-3.0%)		4.5%
(+0.5%)

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Navy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
91.2%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRice
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmy
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
TulaneUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRice
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotte
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth Florida
96.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre Dame
92.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulane
87.5%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre Dame
85.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameRice
83.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast Carolina
80.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth Florida
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTulane
75.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulane
69.2%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre Dame
66.7%
<0.1%
South FloridaUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
61.6%
1.6%
Air ForceNotre DameTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth FloridaTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRice
95.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre Dame
94.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth Florida
93.8%
0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre Dame
92.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameUAB
91.2%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRice
90.9%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre Dame
90.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameUAB
88.2%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth Florida
87.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre Dame
86.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTulane
85.3%
0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre Dame
84.3%
0.1%
Air ForceRiceUAB
80.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre Dame
75.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth Florida
75.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceTemple
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulane
73.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
60.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceUAB
56.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteEast Carolina
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth FloridaUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteEast Carolina
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaSouth Florida
44.4%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceSouth Florida
40.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisRice
40.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisSouth Florida
40.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
40.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulane
37.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteMemphis
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyTulaneUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameUAB
31.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth FloridaTulane
30.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaTulane
30.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTulane
27.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
25.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameRice
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaTulane
25.0%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameUAB
24.2%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceTulane
24.1%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTulane
23.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisSouth Florida
22.2%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
20.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
18.6%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
18.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameUAB
16.7%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameRice
16.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneUAB
14.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisTulane
10.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisUAB
10.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaMemphis
10.0%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameTulane
6.3%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
36.9%
4.7%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameSouth Florida
96.2%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaNotre Dame
95.1%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameUAB
94.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameRice
93.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisNotre Dame
85.8%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameTulane
84.8%
0.2%
ArmyCharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
83.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameTemple
68.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameUAB
61.1%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameUAB
57.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRiceUAB
57.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteEast Carolina
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteMemphis
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth FloridaTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameRice
44.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTempleUAB
44.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRiceSouth Florida
41.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
41.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTempleTulane
40.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTempleUAB
40.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameTemple
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameRice
39.2%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaTemple
38.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameUAB
37.6%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
37.6%
0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameTemple
36.4%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameUAB
36.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
35.8%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceUAB
35.7%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameUAB
34.2%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTempleTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameRice
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
32.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
32.3%
0.2%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameRice
31.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameRice
31.1%
0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
29.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaSouth Florida
28.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaMemphis
28.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameTulane
28.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
27.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
26.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth FloridaTulane
26.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaTulane
25.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameUAB
25.9%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameTulaneUAB
25.4%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth FloridaUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameTulane
23.6%
0.2%
ArmyNotre DameTulaneUAB
23.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisSouth Florida
23.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTempleTulane
22.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
21.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
21.5%
0.2%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
21.4%
0.2%
Notre DameRiceTempleTulane
20.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceTulane
19.5%
0.1%
ArmyCharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
18.2%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceTulane
17.9%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaTemple
16.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaTulane
16.4%
0.2%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameRice
16.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameTulane
15.2%
0.3%
ArmyNotre DameRiceUAB
14.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaRice
14.3%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
13.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTulaneUAB
13.3%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameTulane
12.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaTulane
11.8%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameTulane
10.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisTulane
10.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisRice
10.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRiceTulane
8.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceSouth FloridaTulane
1.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTulaneUAB
1.4%
<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com