Troy

TroyTrojans

0-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

37.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

TroySchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/31
vsNevadaNEV
L26-28
29/07
@MemphisMEM
Win prob:51%
39/14
@IowaIOWA
Win prob:53%
49/21
vsFlorida A&MFAMU
Win prob:90%
59/28
vsULMULM
Win prob:95%
610/03
vsTexas StTXST
Win prob:84%
810/15
@South AlabamaUSA
Win prob:47%
910/26
@Arkansas StARST
Win prob:72%
1011/02
vsCoastal CarCCU
Win prob:70%
1211/16
@Ga SouthernGASO
Win prob:75%
1311/23
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:61%
1411/30
vsSouthern MissUSM
Win prob:93%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
8.1%
100.0%
7-1
26.2%
64.2%
6-2
33.5%
30.0%
5-3
22.0%
10.2%
4-4
8.2%
1.7%
3-5
1.7%
0%
2-6
0.2%
0%
1-7
0.0%
0%
0-8
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Troy CCG Opponents

if Troy makes the CCG

James MadisonJames Madison
57.2%
App StateAppalachian St
23.2%
Coastal CarolinaCoastal Car
14.4%
Old DominionOld Dominion
2.8%
MarshallMarshall
2.5%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyThis Week's Impact

Game
TroyCCG OddsAway
TroyCCG OddsHome
TulsaTLSA@Arkansas StARST
37.1%
(-0.3%)		37.5%
(+0.1%)
William & MaryW&M@Coastal CarCCU
37.7%
(+0.3%)		37.4%
(-0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Virginia TechVT
38.2%
(+0.8%)		37.2%
(-0.2%)
ChattanoogaUTC@Georgia StGAST
37.4%
(+0.0%)		37.4%
(+0.0%)
South AlabamaUSA@OhioOHIO
37.5%
(+0.1%)		37.3%
(-0.1%)
UABUAB@ULMULM
37.6%
(+0.2%)		37.0%
(-0.4%)
Ga SouthernGASO@NevadaNEV
37.6%
(+0.2%)		37.1%
(-0.3%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
37.5%
(+0.1%)		37.3%
(-0.1%)
TroyTROY@MemphisMEM
37.5%
(+0.1%)		37.3%
(-0.1%)
Gardner-WebbGWEB@James MadisonJMU
37.3%
(-0.1%)		37.4%
(+0.0%)
Appalachian StAPP@ClemsonCLEM
37.3%
(-0.1%)		37.4%
(+0.1%)
LouisianaUL@KennesawKENN
37.6%
(+0.2%)		37.3%
(-0.1%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@Texas StTXST
37.5%
(+0.1%)		37.1%
(-0.3%)
SE LouisianaSELA@Southern MissUSM
38.1%
(+0.7%)		37.3%
(-0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Troy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.0%
Any 1 loss
77.8%
10.3%
Coastal Car
100.0%
0.8%
Memphis
100.0%
2.0%
Ga Southern
100.0%
0.7%
Iowa
100.0%
1.7%
Florida A&M
100.0%
0.2%
ULM
99.0%
0.1%
Southern Miss
97.7%
0.1%
Arkansas St
83.2%
0.8%
Texas St
75.9%
0.4%
Louisiana
56.1%
1.3%
South Alabama
33.9%
2.2%
Any 2 losses
55.3%
22.6%
Coastal CarGa Southern
100.0%
0.3%
Coastal CarIowa
100.0%
0.7%
Ga SouthernMemphis
100.0%
0.6%
IowaMemphis
100.0%
1.7%
Florida A&MMemphis
100.0%
0.2%
Ga SouthernIowa
100.0%
0.6%
Coastal CarMemphis
100.0%
0.8%
Coastal CarFlorida A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MIowa
100.0%
0.2%
Florida A&MGa Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
MemphisSouthern Miss
98.7%
0.1%
IowaSouthern Miss
98.5%
0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern Miss
98.3%
<0.1%
MemphisULM
97.8%
<0.1%
IowaULM
97.8%
<0.1%
Florida A&MSouthern Miss
93.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouthern Miss
90.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StFlorida A&M
85.0%
0.1%
Arkansas StGa Southern
83.5%
0.2%
Arkansas StIowa
82.4%
0.7%
MemphisTexas St
82.2%
0.4%
Arkansas StMemphis
81.5%
0.7%
Arkansas StCoastal Car
81.5%
0.3%
Ga SouthernTexas St
80.9%
0.1%
Coastal CarTexas St
79.9%
0.1%
IowaTexas St
77.3%
0.3%
Florida A&MTexas St
76.3%
<0.1%
Southern MissULM
71.4%
<0.1%
Florida A&MLouisiana
59.3%
0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana
56.3%
0.6%
LouisianaMemphis
56.0%
1.3%
Ga SouthernLouisiana
55.8%
0.4%
IowaLouisiana
55.1%
1.1%
Coastal CarSouth Alabama
35.3%
0.9%
Ga SouthernSouth Alabama
34.5%
0.7%
IowaSouth Alabama
32.7%
1.9%
Florida A&MSouth Alabama
32.7%
0.3%
MemphisSouth Alabama
31.3%
2.2%
Arkansas StSouthern Miss
28.3%
<0.1%
Texas StULM
25.0%
<0.1%
Southern MissTexas St
22.6%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouthern Miss
17.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StULM
17.9%
<0.1%
LouisianaULM
11.7%
<0.1%
South AlabamaULM
10.7%
0.1%
Arkansas StTexas St
7.4%
0.1%
South AlabamaSouthern Miss
6.0%
0.2%
LouisianaTexas St
4.6%
0.2%
Arkansas StLouisiana
3.9%
0.5%
South AlabamaTexas St
3.3%
0.4%
Arkansas StSouth Alabama
2.4%
0.8%
LouisianaSouth Alabama
0.9%
1.4%
Any 3 losses
39.0%
25.2%
Coastal CarGa SouthernMemphis
100.0%
0.3%
Coastal CarGa SouthernIowa
100.0%
0.3%
Florida A&MGa SouthernMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarIowaMemphis
100.0%
0.7%
Florida A&MIowaMemphis
100.0%
0.2%
Ga SouthernIowaMemphis
100.0%
0.6%
Florida A&MGa SouthernIowa
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida A&MIowa
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida A&MMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMemphisSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMemphisULM
100.0%
<0.1%
IowaMemphisULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida A&MGa Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MIowaSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarIowaSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarIowaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernIowaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MGa SouthernSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MMemphisSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MIowaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida A&MULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MMemphisULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MGa SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MTexas StULM
100.0%
<0.1%
IowaMemphisSouthern Miss
99.1%
0.1%
Coastal CarMemphisULM
97.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernIowaSouthern Miss
97.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMemphisSouthern Miss
96.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernTexas St
93.2%
<0.1%
Florida A&MGa SouthernTexas St
92.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarFlorida A&M
89.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarGa Southern
86.7%
0.1%
Arkansas StFlorida A&MMemphis
85.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernIowa
85.0%
0.2%
Arkansas StFlorida A&MIowa
84.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StIowaMemphis
83.4%
0.6%
Coastal CarFlorida A&MTexas St
83.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMemphis
83.2%
0.2%
Arkansas StFlorida A&MGa Southern
81.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MIowaTexas St
80.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMemphisTexas St
79.9%
0.2%
Arkansas StCoastal CarIowa
79.2%
0.3%
Arkansas StCoastal CarMemphis
78.9%
0.3%
Coastal CarIowaTexas St
78.3%
0.1%
Florida A&MMemphisTexas St
78.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernIowaTexas St
78.0%
0.1%
Ga SouthernMemphisTexas St
77.3%
0.1%
IowaMemphisTexas St
75.7%
0.3%
Coastal CarFlorida A&MSouthern Miss
75.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouthern MissULM
66.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernLouisiana
62.5%
0.2%
IowaLouisianaMemphis
57.6%
1.1%
Arkansas StFlorida A&MSouthern Miss
57.1%
<0.1%
Florida A&MIowaLouisiana
56.4%
0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMemphis
56.1%
0.4%
Florida A&MGa SouthernLouisiana
54.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarIowaLouisiana
54.0%
0.5%
Coastal CarLouisianaMemphis
54.0%
0.5%
Coastal CarFlorida A&MLouisiana
53.4%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernIowaLouisiana
51.2%
0.4%
Arkansas StCoastal CarULM
50.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernULM
50.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern MissTexas St
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MSouthern MissULM
50.0%
<0.1%
IowaSouthern MissULM
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MLouisianaMemphis
47.8%
0.2%
MemphisTexas StULM
46.2%
<0.1%
MemphisSouthern MissULM
44.4%
<0.1%
Florida A&MSouthern MissTexas St
40.0%
<0.1%
Florida A&MSouth AlabamaULM
35.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernSouth Alabama
35.4%
0.3%
Arkansas StGa SouthernSouthern Miss
34.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernIowaSouth Alabama
34.7%
0.6%
Florida A&MIowaSouth Alabama
34.2%
0.2%
Florida A&MGa SouthernSouth Alabama
33.3%
0.1%
IowaMemphisSouth Alabama
33.2%
1.9%
Florida A&MMemphisSouth Alabama
33.2%
0.3%
Coastal CarIowaSouth Alabama
33.1%
0.9%
Arkansas StMemphisULM
32.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMemphisSouth Alabama
32.0%
1.0%
Coastal CarFlorida A&MSouth Alabama
32.0%
0.1%
Arkansas StMemphisSouthern Miss
31.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMemphisSouth Alabama
30.3%
0.7%
Arkansas StCoastal CarSouthern Miss
30.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StIowaSouthern Miss
29.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTexas StULM
28.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouthern MissTexas St
28.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StIowaULM
25.8%
<0.1%
IowaSouthern MissTexas St
25.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaULM
25.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern MissULM
25.0%
<0.1%
IowaTexas StULM
21.1%
<0.1%
MemphisSouthern MissTexas St
17.6%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisULM
17.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaULM
16.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaULM
16.4%
<0.1%
Florida A&MLouisianaSouthern Miss
15.4%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisSouthern Miss
13.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMemphisTexas St
13.0%
0.1%
Florida A&MLouisianaULM
12.5%
<0.1%
IowaLouisianaULM
11.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
11.8%
<0.1%
IowaSouth AlabamaULM
11.8%
<0.1%
IowaLouisianaSouthern Miss
10.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarTexas St
10.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaSouthern Miss
10.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaSouthern Miss
9.7%
<0.1%
IowaSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
9.6%
0.1%
Arkansas StIowaTexas St
9.6%
0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernTexas St
8.9%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
8.2%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth AlabamaULM
7.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StFlorida A&MLouisiana
6.9%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth AlabamaULM
5.7%
<0.1%
Florida A&MSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
5.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaMemphis
5.0%
0.5%
Arkansas StIowaLouisiana
4.9%
0.4%
LouisianaMemphisTexas St
4.7%
0.2%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisiana
4.5%
0.1%
IowaLouisianaTexas St
4.5%
0.2%
MemphisSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
4.3%
0.2%
Arkansas StCoastal CarLouisiana
3.8%
0.2%
Arkansas StCoastal CarSouth Alabama
3.5%
0.3%
IowaSouth AlabamaTexas St
3.5%
0.3%
Coastal CarLouisianaTexas St
3.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StFlorida A&MSouth Alabama
3.1%
0.1%
Arkansas StMemphisSouth Alabama
3.1%
0.8%
Arkansas StIowaSouth Alabama
3.0%
0.7%
Ga SouthernSouth AlabamaTexas St
2.8%
0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernSouth Alabama
2.5%
0.3%
MemphisSouth AlabamaTexas St
2.4%
0.4%
Ga SouthernLouisianaTexas St
2.1%
<0.1%
Florida A&MLouisianaSouth Alabama
1.7%
0.2%
Ga SouthernLouisianaSouth Alabama
1.5%
0.5%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaTexas St
1.1%
0.2%
IowaLouisianaSouth Alabama
1.1%
1.3%
Coastal CarLouisianaSouth Alabama
0.9%
0.6%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com