Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-30 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:9% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:16% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:27% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:29% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:21% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:8% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:14% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:25% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:17% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:34% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 90.9% |
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 51.0% |
| 5-3 | 1.2% | 3.4% |
| 4-4 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 17.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 31.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 30.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 13.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 3 losses
20.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02