Army

ArmyBlack Knights

1-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

11.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

ArmySchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
vsLehighLEH
W42-7
29/07
@FL AtlanticFAU
Win prob:44%
49/21
vsRiceRICE
Win prob:72%
59/26
@TempleTEM
Win prob:81%
610/05
@TulsaTLSA
Win prob:67%
710/12
vsUABUAB
Win prob:66%
810/19
vsEast CarolinaECU
Win prob:61%
1011/02
vsAir ForceAF
Win prob:37%
1111/09
@North TexasUNT
Win prob:36%
1311/23
vsNotre DameND(N)
Win prob:7%
1411/30
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:32%
12/14
vsNavyNAVY(N)
Win prob:58%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

ArmyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.5%
100.0%
8-1
3.9%
89.2%
7-2
12.9%
38.9%
6-3
24.2%
8.5%
5-4
27.3%
0.1%
4-5
19.6%
0%
3-6
8.9%
0%
2-7
2.5%
0%
1-8
0.4%
0%
0-9
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Army CCG Opponents

if Army makes the CCG

UTSAUT San Antonio
40.2%
TulaneTulane
24.9%
MemphisMemphis
22.7%
North TexasNorth Texas
7.3%
South FloridaSouth Florida
4.8%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

ArmyThis Week's Impact

Game
ArmyCCG OddsAway
ArmyCCG OddsHome
CharlotteCLT@North CarolinaUNC
11.0%
(-0.0%)		11.0%
(+0.0%)
TulsaTLSA@Arkansas StARST
10.9%
(-0.1%)		11.1%
(+0.0%)
Texas SouthernTXSO@RiceRICE
11.1%
(+0.1%)		11.0%
(-0.0%)
UABUAB@ULMULM
11.1%
(+0.1%)		10.9%
(-0.2%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
11.2%
(+0.1%)		10.9%
(-0.1%)
South FloridaUSF@AlabamaALA
10.6%
(-0.4%)		11.0%
(+0.0%)
ArmyARMY@FL AtlanticFAU
18.8%
(+7.8%)		5.0%
(-6.1%)
TroyTROY@MemphisMEM
11.1%
(+0.1%)		11.0%
(-0.1%)
Stephen F. AustinSFA@North TexasUNT
11.0%
(-0.1%)		11.0%
(+0.0%)
Kansas StKSU@TulaneTULN
11.1%
(+0.1%)		10.9%
(-0.1%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@Texas StTXST
11.1%
(+0.0%)		11.0%
(-0.1%)
TempleTEM@NavyNAVY
12.0%
(+1.0%)		10.9%
(-0.2%)

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

ArmyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Army CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
96.3%
0.3%
Notre Dame
100.0%
0.1%
UAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Navy
100.0%
<0.1%
Temple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air Force
100.0%
<0.1%
Rice
100.0%
<0.1%
East Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Tulsa
90.0%
<0.1%
FL Atlantic
85.7%
<0.1%
North Texas
83.3%
<0.1%
UT San Antonio
82.6%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
84.5%
2.1%
NavyNotre Dame
100.0%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre Dame
100.0%
0.3%
NavyTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
TempleUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre Dame
95.4%
0.1%
Notre DameTemple
94.4%
<0.1%
Notre DameRice
93.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameUAB
92.4%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulsa
91.3%
<0.1%
NavyUT San Antonio
90.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre Dame
88.5%
0.2%
North TexasNotre Dame
88.5%
0.3%
East CarolinaNavy
87.5%
<0.1%
NavyNorth Texas
84.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Texas
83.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceRice
81.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameUT San Antonio
81.5%
0.4%
Air ForceUT San Antonio
81.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL Atlantic
80.0%
<0.1%
NavyTulsa
75.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast Carolina
70.0%
<0.1%
RiceUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceUAB
66.7%
<0.1%
TulsaUT San Antonio
57.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasRice
50.0%
<0.1%
TulsaUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticUAB
36.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth Texas
33.3%
<0.1%
TempleUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaUT San Antonio
30.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth Texas
30.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticUT San Antonio
29.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUT San Antonio
20.4%
<0.1%
UABUT San Antonio
20.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUAB
10.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL Atlantic
9.1%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
54.9%
7.3%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyNotre Dame
100.0%
0.2%
NavyRiceTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyTempleUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTulsa
98.2%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRice
95.5%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyNotre Dame
94.7%
0.1%
NavyNotre DameUAB
94.3%
<0.1%
NavyNotre DameTemple
94.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNotre Dame
94.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTemple
93.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre Dame
92.2%
0.4%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre Dame
90.9%
0.2%
NavyNorth TexasNotre Dame
90.6%
0.2%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre Dame
90.5%
0.5%
NavyNotre DameRice
89.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyUAB
88.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameUAB
88.6%
0.1%
Air ForceNavyNorth Texas
87.5%
<0.1%
NavyNotre DameTulsa
85.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNavy
84.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyRice
83.3%
<0.1%
NavyNotre DameUT San Antonio
81.5%
0.3%
Air ForceNotre DameUT San Antonio
81.4%
0.6%
Air ForceNavyUT San Antonio
78.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyTulsa
75.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulsa
73.7%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticTemple
60.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticRice
54.5%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyTulsaUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceTempleTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyTulsaUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTemple
47.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasUAB
46.2%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulsaUAB
44.4%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceTemple
44.4%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceUAB
43.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasTemple
42.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTulsa
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaFL Atlantic
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaTemple
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaUAB
40.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTulsa
39.6%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameUAB
39.0%
0.1%
Notre DameTempleUT San Antonio
37.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNorth Texas
36.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTulsa
35.4%
0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameUAB
35.2%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameRice
33.6%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre Dame
33.3%
0.4%
Air ForceRiceUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyRice
33.3%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasRice
33.3%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTulsa
32.8%
0.1%
North TexasNotre DameUAB
31.4%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameRice
30.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceUT San Antonio
30.5%
0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNorth Texas
30.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceTulsa
29.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameRice
29.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasRice
28.6%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTemple
27.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceUT San Antonio
27.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNorth Texas
27.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaUT San Antonio
26.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulsaUT San Antonio
25.4%
0.2%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNavy
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUABUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasNotre Dame
24.9%
0.2%
FL AtlanticNavyUT San Antonio
22.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticUT San Antonio
22.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNotre Dame
22.3%
0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaTulsa
22.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceTempleUT San Antonio
22.2%
<0.1%
Notre DameUABUT San Antonio
21.3%
0.2%
Air ForceNorth TexasTulsa
21.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameUT San Antonio
20.9%
0.4%
East CarolinaNavyRice
20.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameUT San Antonio
19.3%
0.6%
East CarolinaNotre DameUT San Antonio
17.8%
0.2%
NavyUABUT San Antonio
16.7%
<0.1%
NavyRiceUT San Antonio
16.7%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasUT San Antonio
16.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasUT San Antonio
16.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulsaUT San Antonio
12.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyUT San Antonio
10.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyNorth Texas
8.3%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
30.4%
12.3%
Air ForceNavyNotre DameRice
94.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyNotre DameTulsa
94.3%
0.1%
Air ForceNavyNotre DameTemple
90.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyNotre DameUAB
90.5%
0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNavyNotre Dame
90.1%
0.3%
Air ForceNavyNorth TexasNotre Dame
88.2%
0.4%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNavyNotre Dame
86.9%
0.1%
Air ForceNavyNotre DameUT San Antonio
82.4%
0.4%
NavyNotre DameRiceTulsa
72.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNavyTulsa
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNavyUAB
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNavyTulsa
62.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNotre DameRice
54.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameTemple
53.5%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyNotre DameTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyTempleTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyRiceTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyNotre DameTulsa
47.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNotre DameTulsa
47.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameTulsa
46.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyNorth TexasTulsa
45.5%
<0.1%
NavyNotre DameTempleUAB
44.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTempleTulsa
43.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyRiceUAB
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaFL AtlanticNavy
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameTulsa
39.0%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameTulsaUAB
38.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameRice
38.1%
0.1%
NavyNotre DameTempleTulsa
37.5%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasNotre DameTemple
37.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceUAB
36.0%
<0.1%
NavyNotre DameTulsaUAB
35.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyNotre DameRice
35.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceTulsa
34.8%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
34.3%
0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
34.3%
0.3%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameTemple
33.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyNotre DameUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNavyRice
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyRiceTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameTemple
33.0%
0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameUAB
33.0%
0.2%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameUAB
32.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameRice
32.3%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameTempleUAB
32.0%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasNotre DameRice
31.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaFL AtlanticNotre Dame
31.0%
0.2%
NavyNotre DameTulsaUT San Antonio
30.5%
0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNavyNotre Dame
30.3%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTempleUT San Antonio
29.9%
0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameUAB
29.8%
0.3%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceTemple
29.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNotre DameTemple
29.2%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyNorth TexasNotre Dame
28.7%
0.3%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNavyNorth Texas
28.6%
<0.1%
NavyNotre DameRiceTemple
28.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre Dame
27.7%
0.6%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceUT San Antonio
26.9%
0.2%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNavyNorth Texas
26.7%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasNotre DameUAB
26.3%
0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNorth TexasNotre Dame
25.4%
0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNavyUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticRiceUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNavyRice
25.0%
<0.1%
NavyNotre DameRiceUT San Antonio
24.8%
0.1%
NavyNotre DameTempleUT San Antonio
24.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNorth TexasNotre Dame
24.0%
0.3%
NavyNotre DameUABUT San Antonio
24.0%
0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNavyUT San Antonio
23.9%
<0.1%
NavyNotre DameRiceUAB
23.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTulsaUT San Antonio
23.0%
0.3%
East CarolinaNavyNotre DameUAB
22.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyNotre DameUT San Antonio
22.8%
0.3%
Air ForceNavyUABUT San Antonio
22.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNavyUAB
22.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameRice
21.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameUABUT San Antonio
21.8%
0.3%
Air ForceNavyRiceUT San Antonio
21.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameUT San Antonio
21.4%
0.4%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameUT San Antonio
20.9%
0.7%
Air ForceNavyNorth TexasTemple
20.0%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasNotre DameUT San Antonio
18.6%
0.4%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameUT San Antonio
17.5%
1.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticTempleUAB
16.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyNorth TexasUT San Antonio
15.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyTulsaUAB
14.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNavyNorth TexasRice
14.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNotre DameUT San Antonio
12.8%
0.1%
Air ForceNavyNorth TexasUAB
10.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNorth TexasUT San Antonio
7.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTempleTulsa
5.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameRiceTemple
5.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameRiceUAB
3.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulsaUT San Antonio
2.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameRiceTulsa
2.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameRiceUAB
2.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulsaUABUT San Antonio
2.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceUABUT San Antonio
2.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre DameTemple
2.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasNotre DameUAB
2.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
1.8%
0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTempleUT San Antonio
1.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNotre DameUAB
1.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasNotre DameRice
1.4%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTulsaUAB
1.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
1.3%
0.2%
East CarolinaNotre DameRiceUT San Antonio
1.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNorth TexasUT San Antonio
1.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre DameRice
0.7%
0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTempleUT San Antonio
0.7%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameRiceUT San Antonio
0.6%
0.2%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

ArmyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com