Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W41-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:71% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:30% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:57% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:30% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:34% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:32% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:66% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.3% | 93.2% |
| 6-2 | 7.0% | 32.6% |
| 5-3 | 19.1% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 13.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5% (-0.3%) | 3.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.0%) | 3.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.4% (-0.4%) | 3.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.0%) | 3.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.6% (-0.1%) | 3.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.4% (-0.4%) | 3.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.2% (+0.4%) | 3.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.1%) | 3.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.7% (+0.0%) | 3.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.0%) | 3.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.0%) | 3.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.2% (-0.5%) | 3.8% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.2%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
96.5%
<0.1%
94.7%
<0.1%
90.0%
<0.1%
89.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
56.2%
1.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
0.2%93.2%
<0.1%91.7%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.4%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%22.9%
0.2%Any 3 losses
28.3%
5.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
0.2%38.5%
<0.1%38.4%
<0.1%37.5%
0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.8%
0.2%34.5%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.1%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.2%
0.4%26.7%
<0.1%25.2%
0.4%25.0%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%22.9%
0.4%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
12.0%
5.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.0%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.3%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
1.0%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02