Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
39.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:27% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:12% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:52% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:74% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:70% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:56% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 8.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 25.0% | 90.1% |
| 6-2 | 32.8% | 27.7% |
| 5-3 | 22.7% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 9.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.5% (-0.1%) | 39.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.4% (-0.3%) | 39.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.8% (+0.1%) | 39.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 39.7% (+0.1%) | 39.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 39.9% (+0.3%) | 39.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 40.7% (+1.0%) | 39.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 39.1% (-0.6%) | 40.1% (+0.5%) | |
| 39.6% (-0.1%) | 39.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.4% (-0.3%) | 39.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.5% (-0.1%) | 39.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 39.6% (-0.1%) | 39.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 39.9% (+0.2%) | 39.6% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
97.9%
1.9%
100.0%
1.0%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
96.5%
<0.1%
95.5%
<0.1%
94.8%
<0.1%
93.0%
<0.1%
92.3%
<0.1%
90.8%
0.1%
85.5%
0.1%Any 2 losses
90.3%
9.3%100.0%
2.6%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.1%
0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.0%
0.2%94.8%
0.5%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%92.9%
0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.8%
0.4%91.7%
<0.1%91.5%
0.1%90.4%
<0.1%89.7%
0.4%88.8%
0.8%87.8%
0.3%85.0%
0.3%84.1%
0.7%79.4%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
72.6%
20.8%100.0%
2.5%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
0.1%95.4%
0.1%94.8%
0.4%94.0%
0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.8%
0.4%93.8%
0.2%93.4%
<0.1%93.2%
1.1%93.2%
0.1%93.1%
0.3%92.5%
0.7%92.0%
1.2%91.9%
0.4%91.7%
0.4%91.2%
2.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
0.3%88.8%
1.0%88.5%
0.1%88.2%
<0.1%84.4%
2.0%83.7%
0.3%81.6%
0.7%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%41.1%
0.2%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.0%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.2%
0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%34.0%
0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.2%
0.1%31.9%
0.4%31.6%
<0.1%30.9%
0.2%30.9%
0.3%30.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
0.1%28.4%
0.3%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
0.1%25.4%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.1%
0.3%21.4%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.5%
0.1%20.1%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.4%
0.2%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.3%
0.6%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.3%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
47.2%
24.0%100.0%
<0.1%95.4%
0.1%94.4%
1.1%94.0%
1.0%93.8%
0.4%92.7%
0.4%91.1%
1.9%91.0%
0.9%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
1.8%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.0%
0.2%46.6%
<0.1%46.5%
0.2%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.8%
0.2%44.8%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.6%
0.2%43.3%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.7%
0.1%42.2%
<0.1%41.9%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.0%
0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.9%
0.2%36.5%
<0.1%35.9%
0.2%35.6%
0.5%35.3%
0.3%33.7%
0.3%33.6%
0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%32.0%
0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.5%
0.4%31.5%
0.1%31.1%
0.3%30.9%
<0.1%30.8%
0.9%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.4%
0.2%30.3%
0.1%29.5%
0.1%29.5%
0.4%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
0.9%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.2%
0.3%26.2%
0.3%25.9%
<0.1%25.6%
0.3%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
0.3%23.8%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.5%
0.8%23.4%
0.1%22.6%
0.9%22.1%
0.2%21.6%
0.8%21.5%
0.3%19.1%
0.7%18.5%
0.1%18.4%
0.1%17.7%
0.5%17.2%
<0.1%16.6%
0.2%16.2%
0.2%15.9%
1.5%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02