Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
38.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:49% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:37% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:70% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:92% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:36% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:86% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:82% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 16.2% | 99.3% |
| 6-2 | 30.9% | 58.4% |
| 5-3 | 29.1% | 3.4% |
| 4-4 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 38.4% (-0.1%) | 38.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 38.5% (-0.0%) | 38.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 38.7% (+0.2%) | 38.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 38.4% (-0.1%) | 38.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 38.6% (+0.1%) | 38.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 36.7% (-1.7%) | 38.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 38.4% (-0.1%) | 38.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 38.4% (-0.1%) | 38.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 38.3% (-0.1%) | 38.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 38.4% (-0.1%) | 38.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 38.6% (+0.1%) | 38.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 37.4% (-1.0%) | 38.6% (+0.2%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
99.6%
3.7%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.6%99.5%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.1%
0.2%99.1%
0.8%Any 2 losses
85.1%
12.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.7%
0.4%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.9%99.2%
1.3%99.1%
0.3%99.1%
0.6%98.9%
<0.1%98.7%
1.1%98.1%
0.3%97.9%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.3%
0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%70.1%
0.4%69.1%
<0.1%68.4%
0.1%67.8%
0.2%66.0%
0.2%65.2%
0.1%64.2%
0.2%61.1%
0.4%59.8%
0.3%51.1%
0.3%48.6%
0.4%42.0%
1.1%Any 3 losses
59.9%
23.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.5%
0.4%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.3%99.2%
0.3%99.2%
0.1%99.2%
1.1%99.0%
0.3%98.6%
1.5%90.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%77.9%
<0.1%77.6%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%77.3%
0.2%77.2%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.5%
0.1%71.4%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
0.2%70.6%
0.2%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.9%
0.1%69.6%
0.2%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.2%
0.7%67.3%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.4%65.8%
<0.1%65.7%
0.3%65.6%
0.2%65.3%
<0.1%64.9%
0.2%64.8%
0.5%64.3%
<0.1%63.9%
0.3%63.6%
0.1%62.9%
0.1%62.3%
0.3%62.2%
0.6%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
0.3%58.2%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
0.4%56.8%
0.7%55.3%
0.4%53.9%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.4%
0.4%50.6%
0.6%40.8%
2.0%39.0%
0.3%37.9%
1.1%33.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%3.6%
0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.5%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
0.6%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.4%1.2%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%Any 4 losses
33.4%
23.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.0%
0.4%93.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.3%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.9%
0.2%73.8%
<0.1%73.3%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
0.2%70.8%
<0.1%70.1%
0.1%69.7%
0.1%69.5%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.1%
0.2%66.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.6%
0.5%66.4%
0.3%66.0%
0.6%65.3%
0.3%65.0%
0.4%64.9%
<0.1%64.6%
0.2%64.3%
<0.1%64.2%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.8%
0.1%63.4%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.2%
0.5%58.3%
<0.1%57.8%
0.1%56.9%
0.7%56.6%
0.1%56.4%
0.1%56.3%
0.4%50.7%
0.6%50.0%
<0.1%45.6%
0.1%41.3%
1.9%40.7%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.5%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.1%
0.2%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.7%
0.3%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.8%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
1.0%2.4%
0.5%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.2%
0.5%2.1%
<0.1%1.9%
0.3%1.9%
0.3%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.6%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.1%
0.8%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.5%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02