ArizonaWildcats

2-1 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

25.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsNew MexicoUNM	W61-39
2	9/07	vsNorthern ArizonaNAU	W22-10
3	9/13	@Kansas StateKSU	L7-31
5	9/28	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:47%
6	10/05	vsTexas TechTTU	Win prob:64%
7	10/12	@BYUBYU	Win prob:69%
8	10/19	vsColoradoCOLO	Win prob:90%
9	10/26	vsWest VirginiaWVU	Win prob:74%
10	11/02	@UCFUCF	Win prob:46%
12	11/15	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:81%
13	11/23	@TCUTCU	Win prob:55%
14	11/30	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:77%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	2.1%	100.0%
8-1	11.2%	94.0%
7-2	24.2%	48.7%
6-3	28.9%	3.5%
5-4	20.9%	0%
4-5	9.4%	0%
3-6	2.7%	0%
2-7	0.5%	0%
1-8	0.0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

69.9%

12.4%

6.2%

6.2%

5.4%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BaylorBAY@ColoradoCOLO	25.3% (-0.1%)	25.7% (+0.2%)
TCUTCU@SMUSMU	25.3% (-0.1%)	25.5% (+0.0%)
Arkansas StateARST@Iowa StateISU	25.6% (+0.1%)	25.4% (-0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@Texas TechTTU	25.7% (+0.3%)	25.3% (-0.1%)
Kansas StateKSU@BYUBYU	24.5% (-0.9%)	30.9% (+5.5%)
HoustonHOU@CincinnatiCIN	25.4% (+0.0%)	25.4% (-0.0%)
UtahUTAH@Oklahoma StateOKST	25.5% (+0.1%)	25.3% (-0.1%)
KansasKU@West VirginiaWVU	24.8% (-0.6%)	26.1% (+0.6%)

Best Winner Combination for

Colorado

TCU

Arkansas State

Arizona State

BYU

Houston

Oklahoma State

West Virginia

CCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

BYU

CCG: 30.9% • Scenario: 14.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

2.1%

Any 1 loss

94.0%

11.1%

97.4%

1.8%

95.3%

0.9%

95.1%

0.5%

94.8%

2.4%

94.3%

0.7%

94.0%

0.3%

92.9%

1.2%

92.2%

0.7%

91.2%

2.6%

Any 2 losses

48.7%

24.2%

77.8%

<0.1%

66.7%

0.2%

66.4%

0.1%

65.7%

0.4%

64.8%

<0.1%

64.5%

0.3%

63.9%

0.5%

63.1%

0.8%

62.9%

0.1%

60.8%

<0.1%

59.5%

0.3%

57.3%

0.6%

56.3%

0.2%

52.5%

0.3%

52.0%

0.2%

51.9%

0.3%

51.8%

1.1%

51.3%

2.0%

51.3%

0.6%

50.4%

0.6%

49.4%

0.8%

47.5%

0.3%

47.2%

0.9%

46.9%

0.5%

46.9%

1.0%

46.7%

1.4%

45.9%

0.3%

45.5%

0.4%

45.3%

2.2%

44.8%

1.2%

43.1%

1.4%

42.1%

2.9%

41.3%

0.1%

41.0%

0.4%

39.5%

0.8%

39.4%

0.9%

Any 3 losses

3.6%

28.9%

17.6%

<0.1%

17.5%

<0.1%

13.1%

0.1%

11.5%

<0.1%

11.5%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.5%

<0.1%

8.3%

0.2%

8.2%

0.2%

7.5%

0.3%

7.3%

0.3%

7.0%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.6%

0.3%

6.5%

0.3%

6.5%

0.1%

6.4%

<0.1%

6.4%

0.1%

6.2%

0.1%

6.1%

<0.1%

5.7%

<0.1%

5.4%

0.3%

5.3%

0.2%

5.3%

0.3%

5.2%

0.2%

5.1%

0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.8%

0.3%

4.6%

0.2%

4.5%

0.9%

4.5%

0.2%

4.4%

0.4%

4.3%

0.6%

4.3%

0.3%

4.3%

0.6%

4.3%

0.6%

4.1%

0.1%

4.0%

0.1%

4.0%

1.2%

4.0%

0.9%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.8%

0.6%

3.8%

0.3%

3.7%

0.1%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.5%

0.4%

3.4%

0.9%

3.4%

0.1%

3.4%

0.1%

3.3%

0.2%

3.2%

0.2%

3.2%

2.5%

3.1%

0.5%

3.0%

0.5%

3.0%

0.2%

3.0%

1.0%

3.0%

0.1%

3.0%

0.2%

2.9%

1.6%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.7%

0.4%

2.6%

0.6%

2.6%

0.4%

2.4%

1.1%

2.3%

0.1%

2.3%

0.5%

2.3%

0.4%

2.2%

0.3%

2.2%

0.4%

2.2%

0.2%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.1%

0.5%

1.9%

0.3%

1.8%

0.3%

1.8%

0.1%

1.8%

1.2%

1.5%

0.7%

1.5%

0.4%

1.1%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.8%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com