Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:47% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:53% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:59% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 6.1% | 94.2% |
| 7-2 | 16.9% | 49.8% |
| 6-3 | 26.5% | 3.4% |
| 5-4 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 15.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 15.6% (-0.4%) | 16.6% (+0.6%) | |
| 15.9% (-0.1%) | 16.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 16.1% (+0.1%) | 16.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.0% (+1.0%) | 15.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 15.5% (-0.5%) | 18.8% (+2.8%) | |
| 16.2% (+0.3%) | 15.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 24.3% (+8.4%) | 8.4% (-7.6%) | |
| 16.0% (+0.0%) | 16.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Baylor
TCU
Arkansas State
Arizona State
BYU
CincinnatiUtah
West VirginiaCCG: 47.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 24.3% • Scenario: 47.5%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.0%Any 1 loss
94.2%
6.1%
98.4%
0.5%97.4%
0.5%96.5%
0.3%
95.6%
1.1%
95.5%
0.3%92.9%
0.7%
92.8%
0.6%
92.2%
0.8%
91.9%
1.3%Any 2 losses
49.8%
16.9%70.5%
0.1%68.4%
0.4%65.3%
0.3%64.4%
0.1%63.6%
0.6%63.0%
0.2%62.8%
0.2%62.6%
0.4%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
0.1%60.5%
0.2%56.8%
0.3%54.6%
0.7%53.9%
0.3%53.8%
0.3%53.3%
0.8%53.0%
0.2%51.9%
0.6%50.7%
0.3%50.6%
0.2%50.4%
1.5%50.2%
0.7%49.6%
0.5%48.9%
0.4%48.0%
0.4%48.0%
0.9%47.6%
1.0%47.6%
0.3%45.2%
0.7%44.1%
0.5%42.7%
0.3%41.8%
0.6%38.8%
0.9%37.9%
0.5%37.9%
1.2%37.2%
0.2%Any 3 losses
3.3%
26.5%16.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%7.8%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.5%6.5%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.1%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
0.8%6.0%
0.2%5.9%
0.2%5.8%
0.4%5.7%
0.4%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.3%4.8%
0.2%4.7%
0.2%4.6%
0.3%4.5%
0.4%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
0.7%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
0.3%3.9%
0.4%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
0.3%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.4%3.4%
0.5%3.4%
0.2%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
0.5%3.3%
0.4%3.3%
0.1%3.3%
0.7%3.2%
0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
1.0%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.5%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
1.4%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.4%2.8%
0.5%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
0.5%2.6%
0.6%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
1.0%2.4%
0.8%2.4%
0.3%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
0.4%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.4%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.8%1.7%
0.3%1.6%
0.6%1.4%
0.9%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.0%
0.6%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15