Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:36% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:12% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:7% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:10% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:13% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:19% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:25% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.0% | 77.3% |
| 6-3 | 0.2% | 20.5% |
| 5-4 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 32.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 28.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 10.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
SMU
Arkansas State
Texas Tech
BYU
Houston
Utah
KansasCCG: 2.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 35.7%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
21.2%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15