Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-16 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:53% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:19% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:18% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:42% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:20% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:6% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 93.9% |
| 7-2 | 0.4% | 55.5% |
| 6-3 | 2.4% | 5.0% |
| 5-4 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 29.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 11.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 2.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.3%) | 0.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
TCU
Arkansas State
Arizona State
BYUCincinnati
Utah
West VirginiaCCG: 10.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 52.5%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
92.9%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
92.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
54.1%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%54.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
5.6%
2.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15