Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W48-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L20-23 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:51% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:53% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:55% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:69% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:16% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.5% | 91.0% |
| 7-2 | 10.0% | 41.7% |
| 6-3 | 21.7% | 2.7% |
| 5-4 | 27.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 22.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 11.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2% (+0.0%) | 7.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.1% (-0.1%) | 7.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.1%) | 7.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.0% (+0.8%) | 6.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 7.0% (-0.2%) | 8.3% (+1.1%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.1%) | 7.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.0% (-0.2%) | 7.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 11.8% (+4.5%) | 2.5% (-4.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Baylor
TCU
Arkansas State
Arizona State
BYU
Houston
UtahKansasCCG: 30.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
KansasCCG: 11.8% • Scenario: 51.0%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
91.0%
2.5%96.5%
0.1%
96.4%
<0.1%96.4%
0.2%95.8%
0.2%93.1%
0.1%93.0%
0.2%
92.2%
0.2%
92.0%
0.2%
87.7%
1.2%Any 2 losses
41.7%
10.1%69.7%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%56.7%
0.1%56.5%
0.2%55.9%
0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
0.1%52.5%
0.1%51.5%
0.9%50.8%
0.5%50.5%
0.2%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%47.9%
0.2%46.8%
<0.1%46.3%
0.1%42.4%
0.2%42.3%
<0.1%41.8%
0.3%40.4%
0.8%40.4%
<0.1%40.3%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.0%
0.2%36.6%
1.1%36.2%
0.1%35.6%
1.0%35.2%
1.0%34.6%
1.2%34.0%
<0.1%33.7%
0.2%33.7%
0.2%33.2%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15