Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W57-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W35-34 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:88% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:64% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 3.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 13.9% | 93.6% |
| 7-2 | 27.3% | 47.1% |
| 6-3 | 29.2% | 3.5% |
| 5-4 | 18.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 6.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 29.6% (-0.2%) | 30.2% (+0.4%) | |
| 29.8% (+0.0%) | 29.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 29.8% (-0.0%) | 29.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.3% (+2.5%) | 28.9% (-0.9%) | |
| 29.0% (-0.8%) | 34.5% (+4.7%) | |
| 29.8% (-0.1%) | 29.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 29.7% (-0.1%) | 29.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 28.9% (-0.9%) | 30.8% (+0.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
TCU
Arkansas State
Arizona State
BYU
Houston
Oklahoma State
KansasCCG: 62.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Arizona StateCCG: 32.3% • Scenario: 27.4%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.9%Any 1 loss
94.4%
9.9%
100.0%
1.0%
96.7%
0.4%95.0%
0.2%94.9%
0.5%
94.6%
1.3%
94.5%
1.4%
94.3%
2.2%93.7%
1.2%
90.5%
1.6%Any 2 losses
57.4%
22.6%96.3%
0.1%95.1%
0.2%95.0%
0.7%94.4%
0.7%93.8%
0.8%93.8%
0.3%92.4%
1.2%91.3%
0.9%67.8%
0.1%63.6%
0.3%60.4%
0.3%58.4%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%58.2%
0.3%55.8%
0.5%55.7%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
0.4%54.6%
1.0%54.6%
0.4%53.8%
0.3%53.1%
0.6%51.3%
0.4%50.5%
1.0%47.9%
0.2%47.4%
0.9%46.8%
1.4%46.3%
0.3%45.4%
1.6%45.2%
1.5%44.6%
0.4%43.6%
0.2%41.4%
1.1%40.8%
1.0%39.0%
1.8%38.0%
1.2%Any 3 losses
18.1%
28.6%63.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
0.1%60.7%
0.2%60.2%
0.2%59.1%
0.2%58.8%
<0.1%57.3%
0.1%54.9%
0.2%54.6%
0.1%53.6%
0.3%53.4%
0.2%53.0%
0.1%52.9%
0.2%50.6%
0.2%50.2%
0.5%49.2%
0.7%48.8%
0.6%48.2%
0.1%48.0%
0.5%45.9%
0.9%44.7%
0.8%43.8%
<0.1%42.2%
0.6%41.5%
0.7%40.1%
0.2%39.7%
0.6%35.3%
1.0%15.2%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.6%
0.3%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.4%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%5.9%
0.2%5.8%
0.3%5.6%
0.2%5.5%
0.4%5.2%
0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
0.3%4.9%
0.1%4.9%
0.4%4.8%
0.5%4.7%
0.3%4.6%
0.2%4.5%
0.4%4.4%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
0.3%3.8%
0.2%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
0.3%3.3%
0.2%3.3%
1.2%3.2%
0.7%3.2%
0.5%3.1%
0.4%3.1%
1.0%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.7%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.5%
1.1%2.4%
1.0%2.4%
0.8%2.3%
0.9%2.3%
0.3%2.3%
1.4%2.1%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.7%
1.2%1.5%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
3.5%
10.2%20.0%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
0.2%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
0.6%3.7%
0.3%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.2%
0.5%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.2%
0.6%3.2%
0.4%3.1%
0.6%2.8%
0.4%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.5%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.4%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.8%1.8%
0.7%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15