TCUHorned Frogs

2-1 T2nd (0-1) in B12

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@StanfordSTAN	W34-27
2	9/07	vsLong Island UniversityLIU	W45-0
3	9/14	vsUCFUCF	L34-35
4	9/21	@SMUSMU	Win prob:33%
5	9/28	vsKansasKU(N)	Win prob:47%
6	10/04	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:73%
8	10/19	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:35%
9	10/26	vsTexas TechTTU	Win prob:52%
10	11/02	@BaylorBAY	Win prob:53%
11	11/09	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:56%
13	11/23	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:45%
14	11/30	@CincinnatiCIN	Win prob:63%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	0.6%	94.8%
7-2	4.0%	53.6%
6-3	13.4%	6.8%
5-4	24.5%	0%
4-5	27.6%	0%
3-6	19.7%	0%
2-7	8.2%	0%
1-8	1.9%	0%
0-9	0.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

64.6%

15.7%

8.8%

6.0%

5.0%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BaylorBAY@ColoradoCOLO	3.7% (+0.1%)	3.5% (-0.1%)
TCUTCU@SMUSMU	3.7% (+0.1%)	3.6% (-0.0%)
Arkansas StateARST@Iowa StateISU	3.6% (+0.0%)	3.6% (+0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@Texas TechTTU	3.6% (+0.0%)	3.6% (+0.0%)
Kansas StateKSU@BYUBYU	3.5% (-0.1%)	4.5% (+0.9%)
HoustonHOU@CincinnatiCIN	3.6% (-0.0%)	3.6% (+0.0%)
UtahUTAH@Oklahoma StateOKST	3.5% (-0.1%)	3.7% (+0.1%)
KansasKU@West VirginiaWVU	3.7% (+0.1%)	3.5% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Colorado

SMU

Arkansas State

Arizona State

BYU

Cincinnati

Utah

Kansas

CCG: 17.6% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

BYU

CCG: 4.5% • Scenario: 14.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

95.4%

0.2%

Any 1 loss

63.2%

1.7%

94.5%

0.4%

65.3%

0.1%

64.7%

0.1%

60.0%

0.2%

58.2%

<0.1%

57.0%

0.1%

52.4%

0.3%

46.8%

0.1%

43.2%

0.2%

Any 2 losses

24.4%

7.1%

62.1%

0.3%

58.0%

0.1%

57.6%

0.4%

53.6%

0.2%

53.1%

0.3%

52.8%

0.7%

48.8%

0.3%

43.7%

0.4%

17.8%

<0.1%

15.6%

<0.1%

13.9%

<0.1%

11.5%

0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.0%

<0.1%

10.3%

0.1%

9.7%

0.1%

8.5%

<0.1%

8.3%

0.2%

8.0%

0.2%

8.0%

0.2%

7.9%

0.1%

7.7%

0.4%

7.4%

0.2%

7.3%

0.1%

6.7%

0.2%

6.4%

0.3%

6.3%

0.2%

5.4%

0.2%

5.4%

0.2%

4.8%

0.1%

4.6%

0.4%

4.2%

0.3%

3.1%

<0.1%

2.6%

0.2%

1.6%

0.2%

1.4%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

6.9%

8.9%

13.4%

0.2%

12.6%

0.1%

12.3%

0.1%

11.6%

<0.1%

11.3%

0.1%

11.3%

0.3%

11.0%

0.3%

10.7%

0.2%

9.4%

0.3%

9.1%

0.2%

9.1%

0.1%

8.9%

0.2%

8.2%

0.4%

7.4%

0.4%

6.8%

0.2%

6.7%

0.3%

6.7%

0.7%

6.6%

0.6%

6.1%

0.3%

5.5%

0.4%

5.4%

0.2%

5.1%

0.5%

4.8%

0.2%

4.3%

0.6%

4.3%

0.4%

4.1%

0.1%

4.0%

0.4%

3.4%

0.8%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com