Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-15
Conference Standings
| 1 |  UCFUCF | 1-0 | 3-0 | 29.8% | |
| T2 |  Kansas StateKSU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 75.9% | |
| T2 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-0 | 2-1 | 25.4% | |
| T2 |  UtahUTAH | 0-0 | 3-0 | 16.0% | |
| T2 |  Texas TechTTU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 14.6% | |
| T2 |  Iowa StateISU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 10.8% | |
| T2 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-0 | 3-0 | 8.2% | |
| T2 |  KansasKU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7.2% | |
| T2 |  TCUTCU | 0-1 | 2-1 | 3.6% | |
| T2 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2.9% | |
| T2 |  BaylorBAY | 0-0 | 2-1 | 2.4% | |
| T2 |  Arizona StateASU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 1.4% | |
| T2 |  BYUBYU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 0.8% | |
| T2 |  HoustonHOU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.6% | |
| T2 |  CincinnatiCIN | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0.4% | |
| T2 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-0 | 2-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 75.9%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 75.5% (-0.4%) | 76.5% (+0.6%) | |
| 76.2% (+0.3%) | 75.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 76.2% (+0.3%) | 75.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 78.1% (+2.2%) | 75.1% (-0.8%) | |
| 79.8% (+3.9%) | 52.1% (-23.8%) | |
| 75.9% (-0.0%) | 75.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 74.7% (-1.3%) | 77.0% (+1.1%) | |
| 75.6% (-0.3%) | 76.3% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BaylorTCU
Arkansas StateArizona StateKansas StateHoustonOklahoma StateWest VirginiaCCG: 90.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kansas StateCCG: 79.8% • Scenario: 85.9%
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas StateKSU | 100% | 96.0% | 56.8% | 5.0% | <0.1% | 75.9% |
| UCFUCF | 100% | 93.6% | 47.1% | 3.5% | - | 29.8% |
| ArizonaARIZ | 100% | 94.0% | 48.7% | 3.5% | - | 25.4% |
| UtahUTAH | 100% | 94.2% | 49.8% | 3.4% | - | 16.0% |
| Texas TechTTU | 99.9% | 90.3% | 41.8% | 2.6% | - | 14.6% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 99.0% | 62.0% | 7.9% | - | 10.8% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | 100% | 95.4% | 49.9% | 4.0% | - | 8.2% |
| KansasKU | 100% | 91.0% | 41.7% | 2.7% | - | 7.2% |
| TCUTCU | - | 94.8% | 53.6% | 6.8% | - | 3.6% |
| West VirginiaWVU | 100% | 99.7% | 69.6% | 13.4% | <0.1% | 2.9% |
| BaylorBAY | 100% | 87.7% | 39.6% | 2.1% | - | 2.4% |
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 100% | 69.4% | 12.4% | <0.1% | 1.4% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 100% | 68.0% | 10.1% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 100% | 59.4% | 5.4% | <0.1% | 0.6% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 93.9% | 55.5% | 5.0% | - | 0.4% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | 100% | 77.3% | 20.5% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas StateKSU(0-0) | 24.7% | 37.9% | 25.2% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.7 |
| UCFUCF(1-0) | 3.0% | 13.9% | 27.3% | 29.2% | 18.3% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | 6.3 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-0) | 2.1% | 11.2% | 24.2% | 28.9% | 20.9% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.0 |
| Texas TechTTU(0-0) | 1.0% | 6.1% | 17.8% | 27.7% | 25.9% | 15.0% | 5.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.6 |
| UtahUTAH(0-0) | 1.0% | 6.1% | 16.9% | 26.5% | 25.4% | 15.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.5 |
| KansasKU(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.5% | 10.0% | 21.7% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| Iowa StateISU(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.5% | 10.2% | 21.1% | 27.2% | 22.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.4% | 9.8% | 21.5% | 27.4% | 22.5% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| TCUTCU(0-1) | - | 0.6% | 4.0% | 13.4% | 24.5% | 27.6% | 19.7% | 8.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 4.2 |
| BaylorBAY(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 11.3% | 21.9% | 26.8% | 21.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 4.1 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 8.1% | 18.4% | 26.6% | 24.9% | 14.4% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 3.7 |
| Arizona StateASU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 13.7% | 24.9% | 27.9% | 19.2% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 3.3 |
| HoustonHOU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.2% | 10.5% | 21.3% | 28.3% | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 3.0 |
| BYUBYU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 10.1% | 21.0% | 28.4% | 23.8% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 3.0 |
| CincinnatiCIN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 9.3% | 20.8% | 29.2% | 24.6% | 11.1% | 2.2% | 2.9 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 19.8% | 32.1% | 28.7% | 10.4% | 1.9 |
Data from 2024-09-15