SMUMustangs

2-1 T5th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

21.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/24	@NevadaNEV	W29-24
1	8/31	vsHouston ChristianHCU	W59-7
2	9/06	vsBYUBYU	L15-18
4	9/21	vsTCUTCU	Win prob:67%
5	9/28	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:65%
6	10/05	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:35%
8	10/19	@StanfordSTAN	Win prob:86%
9	10/26	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:50%
10	11/02	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:78%
12	11/16	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:79%
13	11/23	@VirginiaUVA	Win prob:83%
14	11/30	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:72%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	3.6%	99.3%
7-1	16.9%	78.2%
6-2	30.6%	16.3%
5-3	28.3%	0.1%
4-4	14.9%	0%
3-5	4.7%	0%
2-6	0.9%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

34.3%

33.8%

18.6%

8.5%

4.9%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
James MadisonJMU@North CarolinaUNC	21.8% (-0.1%)	22.0% (+0.2%)
DukeDUKE@Middle TennesseeMTSU	21.9% (+0.0%)	21.7% (-0.1%)
VirginiaUVA@Coastal CarolinaCCU	22.1% (+0.3%)	21.8% (-0.1%)
TCUTCU@SMUSMU	21.7% (-0.2%)	21.9% (+0.1%)
NC StateNCSU@ClemsonCLEM	23.6% (+1.7%)	21.6% (-0.3%)
CaliforniaCAL@Florida StateFSU	21.4% (-0.5%)	22.1% (+0.3%)
Youngstown StateYSU@PittsburghPITT	21.4% (-0.5%)	21.9% (+0.1%)
Georgia TechGT@LouisvilleLOU	23.2% (+1.3%)	21.5% (-0.4%)
RutgersRUTG@Virginia TechVT	21.8% (-0.1%)	21.9% (+0.0%)
Michigan StateMSU@Boston CollegeBC	22.1% (+0.3%)	21.7% (-0.1%)
StanfordSTAN@SyracuseSYR	22.5% (+0.6%)	21.6% (-0.2%)
MiamiMIA@South FloridaUSF	21.9% (+0.0%)	21.8% (-0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.2%

2.5%

Any 1 loss

80.3%

12.6%

99.6%

1.2%

88.2%

0.4%

86.8%

0.6%

86.5%

0.5%

85.4%

2.4%

84.8%

1.0%

84.7%

0.6%

81.6%

1.3%

68.3%

4.5%

Any 2 losses

29.3%

26.0%

88.8%

0.3%

87.5%

0.2%

84.4%

0.5%

83.8%

0.7%

83.5%

1.1%

83.5%

0.3%

83.3%

0.3%

68.2%

2.1%

33.6%

0.1%

30.7%

0.1%

30.2%

0.1%

28.0%

0.2%

27.3%

0.1%

26.8%

0.2%

25.8%

<0.1%

25.4%

0.2%

25.1%

0.4%

23.5%

0.6%

23.4%

0.2%

23.3%

0.9%

23.0%

0.3%

22.8%

0.5%

22.0%

0.4%

22.0%

0.3%

21.2%

0.4%

20.9%

0.5%

20.9%

0.2%

18.5%

0.7%

18.2%

1.3%

16.3%

0.8%

14.3%

0.9%

14.0%

1.8%

12.6%

1.3%

12.5%

1.2%

12.0%

2.4%

11.1%

4.4%

Any 3 losses

15.0%

11.0%

41.9%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

28.7%

0.2%

28.4%

<0.1%

27.6%

0.1%

26.7%

0.3%

26.7%

0.1%

25.7%

<0.1%

25.0%

0.1%

24.6%

0.2%

23.1%

0.2%

22.2%

0.1%

21.9%

0.3%

21.2%

<0.1%

20.4%

0.5%

19.8%

0.6%

18.6%

<0.1%

18.4%

0.4%

18.4%

0.2%

15.6%

<0.1%

14.5%

0.9%

13.8%

0.6%

13.7%

0.4%

13.6%

0.4%

13.1%

0.6%

12.0%

1.2%

10.9%

2.2%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com