MemphisTigers

3-0 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

63.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsNorth AlabamaUNA	W40-0
2	9/07	vsTroyTROY	W38-17
3	9/14	@Florida StateFSU	W20-12
4	9/21	@NavyNAVY	Win prob:73%
5	9/28	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:94%
7	10/12	vsSouth FloridaUSF(N)	Win prob:72%
8	10/19	vsNorth TexasUNT	Win prob:89%
9	10/26	vsCharlotteCLT	Win prob:95%
10	11/02	@UTSAUTSA	Win prob:75%
11	11/08	vsRiceRICE	Win prob:92%
12	11/16	vsUABUAB	Win prob:92%
14	11/28	@TulaneTULN	Win prob:53%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	15.1%	100.0%
7-1	35.1%	95.3%
6-2	31.3%	46.2%
5-3	14.4%	1.5%
4-4	3.7%	0%
3-5	0.5%	0%
2-6	0.0%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

34.9%

33.4%

13.5%

10.8%

7.3%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
WyomingWYO@North TexasUNT	63.0% (-0.1%)	63.2% (+0.1%)
TulaneTULN@LouisianaUL	62.7% (-0.4%)	63.5% (+0.3%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU	63.6% (+0.5%)	63.1% (-0.1%)
Utah StateUSU@TempleTEM	63.1% (+0.0%)	63.1% (-0.0%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@UConnCONN	63.1% (+0.0%)	63.1% (-0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@LibertyLIB	63.2% (+0.1%)	63.1% (-0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@UTSAUTSA	64.1% (+0.9%)	63.0% (-0.1%)
RiceRICE@ArmyARMY	69.1% (+6.0%)	61.8% (-1.3%)
MemphisMEM@NavyNAVY	71.8% (+8.6%)	39.6% (-23.5%)
TulsaTLSA@Louisiana TechLT	63.1% (+0.0%)	63.1% (-0.0%)
MiamiMIA@South FloridaUSF	63.0% (-0.1%)	63.4% (+0.3%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

14.2%

Any 1 loss

95.5%

33.9%

100.0%

0.9%

99.4%

1.1%

99.0%

1.3%

98.7%

1.8%

98.6%

0.8%

97.7%

4.7%

97.1%

5.3%

95.9%

5.6%

92.2%

12.6%

Any 2 losses

49.4%

31.5%

98.7%

<0.1%

98.5%

0.3%

98.4%

<0.1%

98.1%

<0.1%

97.5%

0.3%

96.2%

0.1%

94.6%

0.4%

89.4%

0.8%

75.5%

0.1%

71.2%

<0.1%

69.3%

<0.1%

66.4%

0.3%

64.8%

0.4%

63.4%

0.1%

63.2%

0.4%

62.9%

0.3%

62.7%

0.2%

62.3%

<0.1%

60.7%

0.4%

58.9%

0.4%

56.4%

0.4%

56.4%

0.6%

55.9%

0.7%

54.2%

0.3%

52.8%

0.4%

52.1%

1.8%

51.0%

1.1%

50.1%

0.6%

50.0%

1.0%

49.1%

0.7%

46.7%

2.1%

45.9%

1.6%

45.4%

1.9%

41.9%

4.5%

41.6%

4.1%

35.5%

5.0%

Any 3 losses

7.0%

14.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

70.8%

<0.1%

68.2%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

57.6%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

56.5%

<0.1%

56.3%

<0.1%

55.6%

<0.1%

55.6%

<0.1%

51.2%

0.1%

50.0%

0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

47.5%

<0.1%

47.4%

<0.1%

46.8%

0.1%

46.8%

0.1%

45.3%

<0.1%

42.5%

<0.1%

40.0%

0.3%

37.9%

0.3%

33.3%

0.3%

15.8%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.3%

0.1%

7.4%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.2%

0.2%

2.8%

0.6%

2.5%

0.2%

2.4%

0.4%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.2%

0.2%

2.1%

0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.1%

0.2%

2.1%

0.1%

2.1%

0.3%

2.0%

0.3%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.5%

1.7%

0.3%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.5%

0.3%

1.5%

0.1%

1.4%

0.2%

1.4%

1.5%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.3%

0.1%

1.3%

0.2%

1.3%

0.6%

1.2%

0.4%

1.1%

0.2%

1.1%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.6%

0.9%

0.4%

0.8%

0.4%

0.8%

1.6%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

1.9%

Any 4 losses

2.5%

0.4%

15.4%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

1.9%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com