Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L19-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:50% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:6% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:36% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:66% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:63% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 54.7% |
| 7-2 | 5.1% | 7.0% |
| 6-3 | 15.2% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 26.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 17.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 6.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.2%) | 0.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.7%) | 0.2% (-0.6%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.2%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
54.9%
0.8%
84.2%
<0.1%
81.3%
<0.1%
80.7%
<0.1%
76.2%
<0.1%
76.2%
<0.1%
73.5%
<0.1%
71.4%
<0.1%
71.2%
<0.1%
44.5%
0.5%Any 2 losses
7.0%
5.0%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.0%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%7.7%
0.3%7.3%
0.2%7.3%
0.3%5.1%
0.5%4.8%
0.3%4.6%
1.2%3.8%
0.4%3.5%
<0.1%2.6%
0.9%Any 3 losses
0.7%
0.7%2.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15