VirginiaCavaliers

3-1 T1st (1-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsRichmondRICH	W34-13
2	9/07	@Wake ForestWAKE	W31-30
3	9/14	vsMarylandMD	L13-27
4	9/21	@Coastal CarolinaCCU	W43-24
6	10/05	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:46%
7	10/12	vsLouisvilleLOU	Win prob:18%
8	10/19	@ClemsonCLEM	Win prob:7%
9	10/26	vsNorth CarolinaUNC	Win prob:39%
11	11/09	@PittsburghPITT	Win prob:29%
12	11/16	@Notre DameND	Win prob:2%
13	11/23	vsSMUSMU	Win prob:19%
14	11/30	@Virginia TechVT	Win prob:17%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	100.0%
7-1	0.1%	91.5%
6-2	0.8%	28.2%
5-3	5.0%	0.4%
4-4	17.5%	0%
3-5	32.9%	0%
2-6	31.6%	0%
1-7	12.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

37.9%

27.6%

17.2%

10.3%

6.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
LouisvilleLOU@Notre DameND	0.3% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Wake ForestWAKE	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.3% (-0.1%)
Western KentuckyWKU@Boston CollegeBC	0.3% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@ClemsonCLEM	0.4% (+0.1%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@DukeDUKE	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.3% (-0.0%)
Holy CrossHC@SyracuseSYR	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
Florida StateFSU@SMUSMU	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.3% (-0.0%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@NC StateNCSU	0.3% (-0.1%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@MiamiMIA	0.4% (+0.1%)	0.3% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Louisville

Louisiana

Western Kentucky

Stanford

North Carolina

Holy Cross

Northern Illinois

CCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Louisiana

Clemson

NC State

CCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 37.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

92.1%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

81.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

28.6%

0.8%

50.0%

<0.1%

47.8%

<0.1%

43.9%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

38.9%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

36.4%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.4%

<0.1%

30.2%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

28.8%

0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

23.7%

0.1%

18.9%

<0.1%

10.0%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com