Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W50-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L24-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:57% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:48% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:13% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 86.2% |
| 7-2 | 2.7% | 15.9% |
| 6-3 | 13.8% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 17.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1% (+0.4%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.4%) | 0.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
RutgersCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarylandCCG: 1.0% • Scenario: 57.1%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
86.2%
0.2%Any 1 loss
15.9%
2.7%
32.5%
<0.1%
31.6%
<0.1%30.1%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%
27.9%
0.2%
22.0%
0.1%
15.5%
0.9%
10.3%
1.2%Any 2 losses
1.4%
0.5%4.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22