MichiganWolverines

3-1 T1st (1-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

35.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsFresno StateFRES	W30-10
2	9/07	vsTexasTEX	L12-31
3	9/14	vsArkansas StateARST	W28-18
4	9/21	vsUSCUSC	W27-24
5	9/28	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:93%
6	10/05	@WashingtonWASH	Win prob:63%
8	10/19	@IllinoisILL	Win prob:85%
9	10/26	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:96%
10	11/02	vsOregonORE	Win prob:49%
11	11/09	@IndianaIU	Win prob:82%
13	11/23	vsNorthwesternNU	Win prob:94%
14	11/30	@Ohio StateOSU	Win prob:26%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	4.6%	100.0%
8-1	23.5%	91.8%
7-2	37.4%	25.1%
6-3	25.2%	0.5%
5-4	8.0%	0%
4-5	1.3%	0%
3-6	0.1%	0%
2-7	0.0%	0%
1-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

52.4%

25.9%

16.8%

3.0%

1.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MinnesotaMINN@MichiganMICH	15.1% (-20.5%)	37.1% (+1.4%)
IllinoisILL@Penn StatePSU	43.6% (+7.9%)	34.9% (-0.8%)
WisconsinWIS@USCUSC	34.9% (-0.8%)	35.8% (+0.2%)
MarylandMD@IndianaIU	35.3% (-0.4%)	36.1% (+0.5%)
Ohio StateOSU@Michigan StateMSU	35.4% (-0.3%)	41.9% (+6.2%)
OregonORE@UCLAUCLA	35.3% (-0.3%)	40.5% (+4.8%)
NebraskaNEB@PurduePUR	35.8% (+0.1%)	35.3% (-0.4%)
WashingtonWASH@RutgersRUTG	35.6% (-0.1%)	36.0% (+0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Minnesota

Illinois

Indiana

UCLA

Purdue

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Michigan

CCG: 37.1% • Scenario: 93.6%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

4.6%

Any 1 loss

91.8%

23.5%

99.4%

0.3%

99.4%

0.3%

99.3%

1.0%

99.2%

0.2%

97.3%

0.8%

95.2%

2.8%

91.5%

4.9%

89.8%

13.1%

Any 2 losses

25.1%

37.3%

85.7%

<0.1%

75.6%

<0.1%

75.5%

<0.1%

73.2%

<0.1%

73.0%

<0.1%

67.7%

0.2%

58.8%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

58.1%

<0.1%

56.6%

0.2%

54.8%

0.2%

54.5%

<0.1%

54.5%

0.1%

54.1%

0.5%

51.4%

0.6%

44.1%

0.3%

39.8%

0.3%

39.7%

0.9%

39.5%

0.6%

38.3%

1.1%

37.5%

0.9%

36.4%

0.2%

35.5%

2.9%

34.6%

0.9%

32.2%

2.3%

28.5%

2.9%

22.0%

7.8%

13.3%

14.1%

Any 3 losses

1.1%

7.3%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

3.2%

0.2%

3.1%

0.2%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

1.9%

0.2%

1.8%

0.2%

1.7%

0.1%

1.6%

0.5%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.1%

0.4%

1.0%

1.7%

1.0%

0.2%

0.9%

0.1%

0.8%

0.5%

0.8%

0.5%

0.7%

1.4%

0.6%

0.7%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com