Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W77-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-28 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:63% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:6% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.2% | 61.9% |
| 7-2 | 16.8% | 5.5% |
| 6-3 | 34.1% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8% (-0.2%) | 3.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.0% (+1.0%) | 3.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.0% (+1.0%) | 0.9% (-2.1%) | |
| 4.8% (+1.8%) | 3.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.0% (-0.0%) | 3.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.5% (+0.5%) | 3.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.4% (+0.3%) | 2.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.7% (-0.3%) | 3.5% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rutgers
UCLA
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa
Purdue
MichiganCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IndianaCCG: 4.0% • Scenario: 68.3%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
61.8%
3.1%
89.2%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%
83.6%
0.2%81.0%
<0.1%
79.2%
<0.1%76.1%
0.5%
53.9%
2.2%Any 2 losses
5.5%
16.8%40.0%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%26.1%
0.1%23.1%
0.1%17.4%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.3%15.7%
<0.1%13.8%
1.0%10.5%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
1.3%8.2%
0.3%8.1%
0.8%6.2%
0.8%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
3.4%2.2%
7.9%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29