Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W50-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L24-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L28-42 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:76% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:10% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:60% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.1% | 30.0% |
| 6-3 | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 12.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 32.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 17.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rutgers
Penn State
Northwestern
Oregon
USC
Iowa
Purdue
WashingtonCCG: 3.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Penn StateOregon
Minnesota
Ohio StateCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 18.6%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
30.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
3.2%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29