Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-16 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-0 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:42% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:61% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:55% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:17% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 97.1% |
| 7-2 | 1.8% | 53.6% |
| 6-3 | 8.8% | 4.0% |
| 5-4 | 22.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 24.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.4%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.3%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Houston
Arizona State
UCF
West Virginia
Baylor
Texas TechCCG: 3.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas TechCCG: 1.7% • Scenario: 33.4%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.1%
0.1%Any 1 loss
53.6%
1.8%63.9%
0.1%
57.9%
0.1%
56.5%
<0.1%56.4%
0.2%53.4%
<0.1%
52.0%
0.6%
51.2%
0.6%Any 2 losses
4.0%
8.8%8.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%5.5%
0.5%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.1%
0.2%4.9%
0.8%4.7%
0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
0.4%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
0.5%4.1%
0.7%3.5%
0.5%3.5%
0.4%3.4%
2.6%3.3%
0.6%3.3%
0.4%3.1%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29