SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-06

SECConference Standings

T1Texas A&MTA&M3-05-123.9%
T1TexasTEX1-05-075.4%
T1LSULSU1-04-128.5%
T4GeorgiaUGA2-14-123.2%
T4ArkansasARK2-14-20.2%
T6AlabamaALA1-14-125.9%
T6TennesseeTENN1-14-19.8%
T6MississippiMISS1-15-19.7%
T6OklahomaOU1-14-12.2%
T6MissouriMIZ1-14-10.9%
T6FloridaFLA1-13-2<0.1%
T6VanderbiltVAN1-13-2-
T13South CarolinaSC1-23-20.1%
T13KentuckyUK1-23-2<0.1%
T15AuburnAUB0-32-4-
T15Mississippi StMSST0-21-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

117.8%
LSULSU
vs
TEXTexas
216.4%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
314.6%
TexasTEX
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
412.2%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TEXTexas
56.6%
TennesseeTENN
vs
TEXTexas
65.8%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
73.8%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
83.6%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
LSULSU
92.9%
LSULSU
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
102.2%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
112.1%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
122.0%
AlabamaALA
vs
LSULSU
131.1%
OklahomaOU
vs
TEXTexas
141.0%
LSULSU
vs
TENNTennessee
150.9%
AlabamaALA
vs
MISSMississippi

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 75.4%
Game
TexasCCG OddsAway
TexasCCG OddsHome
MississippiMISS@LSULSU
76.0%
(+0.6%)		74.8%
(-0.5%)
TexasTEX@OklahomaOU
81.9%
(+6.5%)		45.7%
(-29.7%)
MissouriMIZ@MassachusettsMASS
75.4%
(-0.0%)		75.5%
(+0.1%)
South CarolinaSC@AlabamaALA
77.6%
(+2.2%)		75.2%
(-0.2%)
VanderbiltVAN@KentuckyUK
74.6%
(-0.8%)		75.5%
(+0.1%)
FloridaFLA@TennesseeTENN
76.4%
(+1.1%)		75.3%
(-0.1%)
Mississippi StMSST@GeorgiaUGA
80.5%
(+5.1%)		75.3%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Texas

MassachusettsMassachusettsSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaMississippi StMississippi State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Texas

TexasTexas

CCG: 81.9% • Scenario: 82.1%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
TexasTEX100%86.6%9.6%-75.4%
LSULSU100%85.1%15.9%-28.5%
AlabamaALA-92.4%26.0%<0.1%25.9%
Texas A&MTA&M100%81.8%7.1%<0.1%23.9%
GeorgiaUGA-97.0%24.9%<0.1%23.2%
TennesseeTENN-67.6%5.6%-9.8%
MississippiMISS-78.9%7.9%-9.7%
OklahomaOU-99.7%54.6%0.2%2.2%
MissouriMIZ-55.1%3.1%-0.9%
ArkansasARK-91.7%51.2%0.1%0.2%
South CarolinaSC--45.8%<0.1%0.1%
KentuckyUK--17.1%<0.1%<0.1%
FloridaFLA--50.0%0.6%<0.1%
AuburnAUB-----
Mississippi StMSST-----
VanderbiltVAN-----

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
TexasTEX(1-0)36.9%42.5%17.1%3.1%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.1
Texas A&MTA&M(3-0)3.3%21.7%40.1%27.3%7.1%0.5%---5.9
LSULSU(1-0)5.0%21.3%34.2%26.7%10.6%2.1%0.2%0.0%-5.8
AlabamaALA(1-1)-17.1%38.9%31.2%11.0%1.7%0.1%0.0%-5.6
GeorgiaUGA(2-1)-13.3%41.1%35.0%9.9%0.6%<0.1%--5.6
TennesseeTENN(1-1)-11.2%40.2%38.5%9.3%0.8%<0.1%0.0%-5.5
MississippiMISS(1-1)-9.1%32.1%37.3%17.8%3.5%0.3%0.0%-5.2
MissouriMIZ(1-1)-1.0%11.6%31.9%35.5%16.4%3.3%0.3%-4.3
OklahomaOU(1-1)-0.3%3.5%15.6%32.4%32.2%14.0%2.1%-3.6
KentuckyUK(1-2)--0.4%8.4%42.5%37.6%10.3%0.7%-3.5
ArkansasARK(2-1)-<0.1%0.4%4.9%24.7%48.5%21.4%--3.1
South CarolinaSC(1-2)--0.3%5.2%24.3%40.7%25.4%4.1%-3.0
FloridaFLA(1-1)-0.0%<0.1%0.2%2.5%15.8%42.7%38.8%-1.8
AuburnAUB(0-3)---<0.1%1.8%13.0%37.2%40.1%7.8%1.6
VanderbiltVAN(1-1)-0.0%0.0%<0.1%1.0%9.4%37.1%52.3%-1.6
Mississippi StMSST(0-2)--0.0%0.0%<0.1%1.6%13.1%43.5%41.9%0.7

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com