Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:53% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:55% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:38% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:64% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 5.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 21.3% | 85.1% |
| 6-2 | 34.2% | 15.9% |
| 5-3 | 26.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 10.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.7% (-14.8%) | 41.5% (+13.0%) | |
| 27.1% (-1.5%) | 35.2% (+6.7%) | |
| 28.5% (-0.0%) | 29.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 32.7% (+4.1%) | 28.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 30.9% (+2.4%) | 28.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 32.0% (+3.5%) | 28.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 31.0% (+2.5%) | 28.5% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ole Miss
Massachusetts
Vanderbilt
Mississippi StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUCCG: 41.5% • Scenario: 53.3%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.0%Any 1 loss
85.1%
21.3%93.8%
0.2%91.8%
4.3%
90.4%
0.9%
89.5%
2.8%
86.8%
1.0%
82.3%
8.1%
78.7%
4.1%Any 2 losses
15.9%
34.2%39.6%
0.1%34.4%
0.4%34.3%
<0.1%32.1%
0.2%27.5%
0.6%27.5%
0.7%26.8%
0.1%26.4%
0.2%26.1%
<0.1%24.5%
0.3%24.3%
2.4%19.8%
2.2%18.4%
0.9%17.4%
0.7%16.1%
0.8%16.1%
1.4%14.5%
3.5%14.3%
4.4%13.8%
1.6%13.3%
7.2%10.7%
6.5%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06