Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W25-15 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-19 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:31% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 11.2% | 67.6% |
| 6-2 | 40.2% | 5.6% |
| 5-3 | 38.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.1% (+0.3%) | 9.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 9.1% (-0.7%) | 13.2% (+3.4%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.2%) | 9.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-8.2%) | 10.4% (+0.6%) | |
| 10.7% (+0.8%) | 9.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Massachusetts
South Carolina
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaTennesseeCCG: 13.9% • Scenario: 16.8%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
67.5%
11.1%Any 1 loss
5.8%
39.9%
70.9%
0.1%
14.8%
0.3%
12.8%
0.8%
11.9%
1.8%11.9%
0.5%
5.3%
24.5%
4.5%
11.8%Any 2 losses
4.4%
0.5%16.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%3.9%
0.3%2.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06