Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:17% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:40% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:52% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:47% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:24% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:69% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:60% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 7.9% | 58.5% |
| 6-2 | 22.2% | 24.5% |
| 5-3 | 31.0% | 4.7% |
| 4-4 | 24.3% | 0.6% |
| 3-5 | 10.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 12.9% (+0.2%) | 12.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.7% (+0.0%) | 12.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.6% (-0.1%) | 12.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 11.6% (-1.1%) | 12.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.3% (+0.6%) | 12.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.6% (-0.1%) | 12.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 13.0% (+0.3%) | 12.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 13.0% (+0.3%) | 12.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.1%) | 12.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.1%) | 12.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.9% (+0.3%) | 12.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.1%) | 12.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.6% (-1.1%) | 12.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.7% (+0.0%) | 12.7% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
78.0%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%30.6%
0.1%Any 2 losses
62.3%
2.9%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
0.1%54.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.3%
0.2%33.9%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
0.2%31.0%
<0.1%29.2%
0.6%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
43.3%
8.9%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.1%
0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.8%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%74.1%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
0.1%60.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
0.3%46.9%
<0.1%45.8%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.7%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.3%
0.2%29.8%
0.2%28.7%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
0.8%28.2%
0.9%27.6%
0.5%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
0.3%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%1.1%
0.4%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
28.3%
14.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.2%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.3%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%74.6%
0.2%73.0%
0.1%71.5%
0.3%71.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.3%
0.4%46.2%
0.3%44.9%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.9%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.6%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.5%
0.8%27.6%
1.2%27.5%
0.8%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%22.9%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
0.3%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.3%
0.3%3.1%
0.3%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
0.2%2.1%
0.3%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.6%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.3%1.0%
0.2%0.8%
0.6%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02